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Who will prevail at the end 2002/4Q?

Discussion in 'GENERAL Wireless Discussion' started by Apoc, Mar 16, 2002.

  1. Apoc

    Apoc Senior Member
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    i know everyone is thinking that wow! this is a longtime away, but when you looking at the race now and the plans for the future. who will stand king of the moutain. Leave your opinion!
     
  2. ComicalMoodyDan

    ComicalMoodyDan Gold Senior Member
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    Well, Sprint PCS for the past number of quarters has gained the most customers. They seem to be growing faster then everybody else so my guess would be Sprint is gonna sign up the most new customers this year, Verizon is so ahead of them in subscriber numbers there still going to be number 1 in base users by far though.
     
  3. larry

    larry Sprint loyalist and former mod
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    And how did Verizon get to be so far ahead of them in subscribers? [​IMG]
     
  4. Guest

    Guest Guest

    You have to define your terms a WHOLE lot better than you have. For starters, how do you define "king"? Are we talking most subscribers, most profitable, "biggest" network (now there's a topic that will keep WA forums busy for a LONG time!), "best" service (ditto!), largest percent growth, ....

    Since this is an INVESTMENT forum (and I'm assuming the area your question is interested in!), I'll vote Verizon -- which you must note is not a public entity, and won't be by 12/31/2002.

    Why Verizon? First, Sprint is actively trying to sell itself and has been since the MCI/WorldCom merger collapsed. I assume they have very good reasons for that -- most of which have been hashed and rehashed here and elsewhere ad nauseum! In addition, Sprint's growth comes (by most accounts I've seen) at the low end of the market -- that is, by offering possibly loss leader plans to many credit unworthy customers. ATTWS, I think, is currently confusing the market by their avowed intent to convert their network to GSM and then to CDMA2000/wCDMA/whatever. I think that many people who see that worry that ATTWS will either stumble or that the customers will be stuck with phones that don't work or soon won't work.

    Cingular is in much the same predicament. They need to standardize their network to something. And it is not clear whether their growth is coming through the same means as Sprint's.

    I think we can eliminate VoiceStream, which has become part of Deutche Telecom. While it (DT!) as a company is much bigger than the other cellular companies are or will ever be, one has to ask whether the size of the PARENT matters. If we are looking at large parents, then you need to consider the combination of Verizon Communications and VodaPhone (who are the joint parent of Verizon Wireless)., and SBC and BellSouth (who make up Cingular!). VodaPhone itself is nearly as large as DT, and if you add in Verizon -- well, the combination is simply overwhelming.

    I am eliminating Nextel simply because their market share isn't anywhere near large enough.

    By the way, if percentage growth is your determiner, don't overlook the smaller companies. ALLTEL, since it serves a fairly large geographic and largely rural area today, has a serious potential to increase it's customer base substantially -- especially with its recent agreements with Verizon. The same could doubtless be said for other of the small, essentiall local, cellular companies .
     
  5. KevinJames

    KevinJames WA's 1st retired mod
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    Houston, there IS intelligent life on earth!

    Anonymous: Nice, very nice. No closure, no conclusion though.

    I did like the "ad nauseum" comment. I also agree that people forget too quickly that, like most businesses, wireless (to the providers) is about money, profit, investment. Subscribers too often see this as some sort of crusade of liberty truth and freedom.
     
  6. Kenny

    Kenny Senior Member
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    Anonymous, I don't think there's anything confusing about ATTWS' plans to convert to GSM and mind you this is an overlay system to TDMA and not a hard-nosed conversion. The plans have already been set for GSM/GPRS overlay then EDGE enhancement...and then on to W-CDMA.

    Mind you, Sprint PCS and Verizon will also undergo upgrade phases that will have a more natural progression but how many of the average users out there know all about the upgrade/conversion details (90% of the people out there don't know what's going on)? And with Sprint PCS and Verizon, you too have to upgrade your phone to a 2.5G/3G compatible one to take advantage of the upgraded CDMA technology. Likewise, ATTWS users can continue using their existing phones for the next few years unless they wish to upgrade to a GSM/GPRS phone to take advantage of the data capabilities.

    ATTWS chose to go with GSM and there's nothing confusing about that...it's the world's most widely recognized and identifiable standard and ATTWS hopes to reap the economies of scale from it.
     
  7. larry

    larry Sprint loyalist and former mod
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    I still prefer the way that Sprint only uses one technology and frequency and doesn't have to invest any money into converting their network into a single standard like the other big ones do. Their 3G conversion costs will be small potatoes compared with how much the others will have to pay. I think this is a big advantage for Sprint. We'll just have to wait and see.
     
  8. KevinJames

    KevinJames WA's 1st retired mod
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    Of course, Sprint's coverage would be much worse if it were not for roaming agreements they have made with the other companies that built up and utilizied other technologies and frequencies. What is nice about ATT and Verizon is that their customers don't have to pay analog roaming charges like Sprint users do.
     
  9. Wayne

    Wayne Senior Member
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    The reason why Sprint has such a huge cusomer growth is because of the Auto-approval system...................that is also why they lead in Churn. They lost soooooooooooooooooo much money in doing the AP thing. Sprint is not even a contender anymore. They get all of the people that do not have good credit............give them a phone.......put them on a rate plan...............and guess what..........THE PEOPLE DO NOT PAY THEM!!

    Here is the formula

    Person that does not pay bills
    Plus
    A company that will AP anyone
    =
    Huge customer Growth
    Dived by
    All of those customer that did not pay
    =
    Bankrupt plus churn


    There................Sprint is stupid.

    LOL..............of course you know my vote [​IMG] Also if you look to see what company is making a profit........................and all the others are still losing money..................who would you vote for????? Just asking[​IMG]
     
  10. KevinJames

    KevinJames WA's 1st retired mod
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    I wouldn't go that far (Wayne's post) but there was one interesting item there. I was just reading an article on WirelessWeek.com regarding "churn" and how the 18 to 24 age bracket are the most prone to churn. Though I know the databases of the carriers probably have some age-group classification, I wonder if that is something they would be willing to share. In my mental straw poll of Sprint users, I have not noticed a focus on a certain age group. Nor have I noticed a propensity toward catering a certain financial risk group. I have seen just as many teens carrying ATT and Verizon as I have carrying Sprint.

    I am very interested in the statistical information that Wayne has to back up his claims. His post seems to indicate some insider knowledge. What about it, Wayne? Any proof?
     
  11. Wayne

    Wayne Senior Member
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    RCR Magizine.......................and other sources.............a couple of issues ago.....they had what the churn rate was............spending........new customers....etc... It also had what the company's spent opposed to what they made. LOL......Voice Stream lost ALOT!!!!!!!!!! Sprint's churn was the highest on the list and lost millions of dollars............lol........but thier customer growth for that quarter was the highest.........all because of the AP system......which by the way they did away with here recently. Also..........rumers are that Sprint is killing off thier prepay system as well.
     
  12. Wayne

    Wayne Senior Member
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    Srry.kinda got off subject to the backup question..............out of all of the company's..........VZW was the only one with profit.[​IMG]
     
  13. larry

    larry Sprint loyalist and former mod
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  14. Wayne

    Wayne Senior Member
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    ROFL......................Leader in Tech!?!?? That is too funny. Anyway like I said earlier...........Sprint did have the biggest growth because of the AP program................but had the most Churn as well............it cost them more money than what they made. And they win an award for it. LOL.............only in America.............anything can happen.[​IMG]
     
  15. Wayne

    Wayne Senior Member
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  16. larry

    larry Sprint loyalist and former mod
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    I'll take wireless Week over RCR anytime. Besides I don't think whether or not they made money has anything to do with it.
     
  17. Wayne

    Wayne Senior Member
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    So you are telling me that you would invest your money into a company that is losing money????? That has been losing money for a while???? ok..........................[​IMG]

    And how does a company get an award for growing when they are losing??? Have you checked the rankings??? Sprint 4th.....

    Money is the topic of this thred and Sprint is not making any.

    1. Vzw
    2. Cingular
    3. ATT
    4. Sprint
     
  18. KevinJames

    KevinJames WA's 1st retired mod
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    Admittedly, I am at some disadvantage because I have never heard of RCR to know how authoritative they are. But I looked at the PDF.

    First, even though I am sad to read it, ATT, NOT Sprint, had the biggest churn.

    Second, Verizon was only one-tenth of a percent less than Sprint in "churn."

    Now lets look at the report as a whole.
    The grid for Verizon doesn't even show what their "Net Income" was. It is listed as "N/A." From what I've read ALL wireless firms (without exception) took a negative hit last year. Wireless carriers are expecting (hoping?) 2002 will be a good year because they expect a lot of people will be upgrading equipment this year.
     
  19. Apoc

    Apoc Senior Member
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    4th Quarter 2001

    Total Customers 29.4 million

    Net Customer Additions 715,000

    Revenue $4.0 billion

    Churn Rate 2.7%

    These are the offical posts for Verizon Wireless 2001, and they will cont' to post these types of numbers in the near future. They have a strong base of people and investors who know which way the wind blows! *tumbleweeds*
     
  20. larry

    larry Sprint loyalist and former mod
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    Wayne,

    I don't think money was the exclusive topic of this thread. There are a variety of topics here. Who's RCR anyway? Like Kevin pointed out there are very little differences among the carriers on that page. Winning an award from wirelessweek.com has nothing to do with money. If you read the link you will see the criteria used in determining the award. Finally the reason Sprint is #4 among the carriers is because they haven't gone the way of mergers like the others have and for the most part have only been operating since 1997. I would say they're doing darn good for only being around 5 years.
     
  21. Guest

    Guest Guest

    I'm the anonymous poster from 6:22AM Monday.

    This thread has taken some interesting turns. But I will stand by my original comments: Apoc must define his terms better if we are to agree on anything.

    To Kevin (9:17AM Monday): I thank you. Sorry I didn't conclude my remarks properly. And I like your comments about "liberty, truth, and beauty" -- Oops! "freedom"... "Beam me up, Scotty. There's no more intelligent life here!"

    I must disagree with Larry (12:35AM Tuesday). This is ABSOLUTELY about MONEY -- if you accept the American economic model, anyway! If we are talking the "future", the only one's that we can seriously consider are the carriers which will still be here. And that means the carriers that will make money -- or that are owned by "deep pocket" parents who are willing to keep funding losers. If they go broke, they won't be around to be considered. (And to your other point: Sprint is DESPERATELY trying to find a merger partner. Whether that will 'save' them from their fate -- whatever that may be -- is yet to be seen. Their problem is somewhat deeper than mere money as anyone who follows these forums should know.)

    To Wayne's last point (5:29 PM Monday) about investing in losing companies. Remember the "dot.com" revolution? (How soon we forget!) Millions of people did exactly that -- invested in companies that had never made money and that had little chance of making money. Some people (the "dot.com millionaires") got rich; more got screwed out of their life savings. The US economy is still recovering from that mess. So yes! Virginia, there are all too many people who would willingly "invest" in losing companies -- and way too many people who would let or encourage them.

    To Kenny (10:29 AM Monday): I am well aware of the technological issues involved with ATT's (and the other carriers) conversion to wCDMA etc. And I stand by my comment. I DID say it was opinion.

    ATTWS might well have their act together and they might well be able to convert network protocols without major service disruptions -- but most of the people who buy cell phones don't know (and certainly shouldn't care) about technologies or such.

    The arguments I read here and elsewhere about the "best" technology rapidly become 'religion' -- someone else made that comment and I think it's appropriate. ALL of the US cell technologies work superbly in the areas where their signal strength and network capacity is adequate. The only valid argument comes down to service plans (including customer service issues) and rates in those areas. In marginal areas where some carriers have no or bad signal quality, you go with the carrier offering the strongest service -- or you pay the penalty and complain here and elsewhere about how "bad" your carrier is.

    I still think that some people who hear that ATT will be changing their network and requiring different phones etc will be turned off -- and the conversion expenses can't help the bottom line.. Plus, will ATT be "stuck" with the old technology they don't want well into the future (back to the original topic here!) because some customers won't/can't convert?

    But on the positive side: The ONLY reasion that ATTWS is converting their network is to increase the capacity and thus the possible customer base and services for the FUTURE. They can make more money! So in that regards, converting their network is a GOOD thing economically and may well enhance their staying power.

    To Apoc's second point (10:08 PM Monday) about Verizon Wireless's "investors". There are none! It is legally a privately held PARTNERSHIP. The only Verizon WIRELSSS "investors" are Verizon Communications Corporation (the old Bell Atlantic plus merger partners such as GTE) and Vodafone Group Plc (a British Corporation). Individuals can invest in the owners, but there is as yet no way that an individual can invest directly in the WIRELSSS operations. And before running off too fast to call your broker, consider that Verizon Communications (the parent) LOST $2 BILLION dollars in 2001 (largely because of the WTC disaster, not because of the wireless side).

    But I agree totally: of the wireless companies out there today, Verizon is by far the most financially secure -- and by that measure alone I vote it to be the one most likely to succeed. (Kevin: Is that conclusion enough?)

    I didn't mention churn, and I'm not too sure how important it is. If the only customer you're losing is the low end and unprofitable one, I can't see that any harm is done -- and it's potentially beneficial to 'give' them to your competitor. I do wonder however whether the churn rate is prompted by dissatisfaction with the service, people looking for a "cheaper" plan, or whether it's simply people looking for a "spiffier" phone. ("I sure wish ATT would carry the Mayflower 2314! It's so cute!....")

    And now, here's a word from our sponsor.............
     
  22. mcf04581

    mcf04581 Senior Member
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    Wayne,

    Awesome RCR link, very cool.
     
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  23. mcf04581

    mcf04581 Senior Member
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    Annonymous,

    I do have to say that you are the most insightful poster ive seen as of yet. Keep up the great posts.
     
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  24. larry

    larry Sprint loyalist and former mod
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    I disagree with Anonymous that Sprint is "DESPERATELY" trying to find a merger partner. They might be looking at all options but it's not desperate.
     
  25. Apoc

    Apoc Senior Member
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  26. Guest

    Guest Guest

    For mfc04581 re your 10:34 comments:
    I thank you. I'll keep lurking around the boards. I might say something if the spirit moves me. (Is that religion again?!)

    For Larry from 12:03:
    "Desperate" is in the eyes of the beholder. Would you prefer "actively", "seriously", "anxiously", some other.... However, if the rumors reported here and elsewhere about their talking to Nextel about a merger are correct, I'd call that "desperate".

    If you paid attention to the justification for the MCI merger, they are definitely "serious", and if they really needed the merger then, they certainly need it now.

    But is Sprint actually in danger of going Chapter 11? I don't know. I doubt it. Who's their auditor? Not Andersen, I hope...
     
  27. larry

    larry Sprint loyalist and former mod
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    The rumors are just rumors. nothing more.
     
  28. Nextel1

    Nextel1 New Member

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    I am dealer and an apparent nextel fan! I may be biased but I think counting out Nextel for 2002 is a mistake! Of course they dont have the market share but with its partnership with Qualcomm and where they are positioning themselves I think they may surprise some critics! The most imperative thing to Nextels growth is of course going to be if this qualcomm partnership produces a dual band phone! Nextel's business model has come under fire from critics but I believe there choice to stand firm in not battling with the other "bottom feeders" and keeping up their ARPU is going to be the reason for a strong 2002. Of course I also firmly believe they are simply positioning themselves for a merger but who that will be is still way up in the air! Some say Verizon has been sniffing around Nextel but I dont buy it. With Verizon's current hodge-podge of spectrum they are going to have their hands full simply converting to 1xRTT. Dont forget! The most often overlooked advantage Nextel has over EVERY carrier is their data. Currently no other carrier has the speed or the flexibility (uses no air-time) that Nextel has! There are more Nextel compatible web-based software products then ever before. I realize this may be a pipe dream but all I am saying is dont count them out!!!
     
  29. Apoc

    Apoc Senior Member
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    Intresting!
     
  30. Wayne

    Wayne Senior Member
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    True...............this is something I did not think of.............Sprint...........they did not merge............buy out....etc. They are growing..........and someday.....................THEY WILL GET BOUGHT OUT MUAHHHAHHAHHAHAHAHAHA......just kidding Larry...........but that was something I forgot.........all major companies that are out right now are through merger's, buyouts, etc.................
     

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