What spot would they be in???

1. Verizon
2. AT&T Wireless
3. Cingular
4. Sprint
5. T-Mobile
6. Alltel
7. Nextel

I think AT&T with different management may have done better & that's why I put them as #2 And it could have been possible T-Mobile would have been # 4

 

Actually, before the Sprint/Nextel merger Briefly T-Mobile was the number 4 carrier with Sprint as number 5.

 

Verizon
AT&T
T-Mobile
Cingular
Sprint
Nextel

 

I forgot about that & they may have retained that hadn't the merger happened. Thanks for the reminder.

 

see......my logic is that even if cingular and tmobile hadnt merged and even if sprint and nextel hadn't merged.......Deutsch Telekom would still be making an effort to expand its US presence so they would have still rolled out UMTS and increased their tower quantity as well as their customer body....although from what i understand the TDMA was good with AT&T but it was beginning to be phased out......so i change my lineup....

Verizon
T-Mobile
AT&T
Cingular
Sprint
Nextel

 

Of course if the Cingular/AT&T merger hadn't happened we can speculate over the state of play with Vodafone succeeding in their bid for AT&T. This creates two interesting situations, one for the GSM market and one for the CDMA market.

In terms of the CDMA market, Verizon would probably have been able to fully acquire Verizon Wireless and thus be in receipt of all the profits. One can argue this might have freed them up for greater expansion.

On the GSM side of things you would have T-Mobile and Vodafone facing off against each other. Cingular, whilst a regional threat to both, would probably be a secondary concern in overall terms. Both T-Mobile and Vodafone may have been prompted to invest more in their American operations in a bid to outdo their biggest rival i.e. each other.

I also rather wonder whether at some point they would have both looked to buy Cingular to gain an advantage over the chief rival.

In this scenario I would place Vodafone in the number one position with either T-Mobile or Verizon second depending upon the above factors I mentioned.

 

so who are you saying Vodafone would have bought and who would DT have bought...........Vodafone would have bought Cingular and CT would have bought voicestream......this would leave Vodafone.....T-Mobile USA.......Verizon.....Sprint....and .....Nextel

Vodafone
Tmobile
Verizon
Sprint
Nextel

i makes sense.........sort of

 

Vodafone directly competing with T-Mobile would probably have been rather good for the American market. They are the two biggets global networks in terms of overall global reach and they also happen to be each others' main rival.

I can just imagine Vodafone bringing in lots of new handsets, the same handsets they release in Europe and Japan (or relased in the case of Japan). T-Mobile would probably have to counter that. Vodafone also implemented its 3G network as part of a general global plan, so they may have implemented 3G quicker in America (assuming they could get the necessary resources). Again this might have prompted T-Mobile to step up its own plans, either with 3G or some alternative.

It's actually jolly inconvenient for me that Vodafone didn't buy AT&T. If they had I could have used Vodafone Passport in America.

 

If the companies involved was the "former" cingular you'd have the same problem that US mobile providers have now. Unless you offer all quad band equipment you're going to have to have GSM capable handsets that can do at least 850 as well as 1900. Right now that's not the case. A good portion of the handsets released by the major manufacturers is only tri-band 900/1800/1900. It's the same problem US operators have to deal with today. There's also the problem of incompatible 3G standards between what's in use in Europe/Asia as opposed to what's either at present used or proposed for 3G. You come up against the incompatibilities again. Even if you're a T-Mobile only subscriber you're not off the hook since roaming partner coverage is 850 in several aresas so if you want coverage in those areas it's imperitive that you have 850 which the majority of Euro/Asian handsets don't have (yet.)

 

it makes sense........they both happen to be global competitors as you said and their full presence in America would be very good for the market however.......at this point........Vodafone only has that 40% share in Verizon and acquiring the remaining 60% wouldnt really help with their plans because Verizon is CDMA.......all their 3G policies wouldnt really be able to be enforced on the CDMA platform

i think someone mentioned earlier that Vodafone might have bought Cingular........that would have worked out......they have the right platform....they were doing fair with their coverage........at that point AT&T was still relying a lot on their TDMA and was just really getting started with GSM.........and the fact that Cingular started out with 850 licenses and today has received 1900 as well as some UMTS licenses would have been good for capacity.......Cingular would have accelarated and would have left Nextel and others in the dust

Tmobile would have still developed better roaming agreements and would have still begun the rollout of UMTS.......Sprint would have continued to rollout EV-DO with the eventual rollout of EV-DO Rev A.....and their WiMax.........Verizon would have conitinued to build their ultimate coverage and EV-DO.....Nextel......well that would be a really sucky life for them........AT&T is a little cloudy........they would have eventually realized the benefits of GSM on their own........but they would rely on TDMA for quite some time because of the customer base........it looks like advances would have still occured in a similar direction as they are going now

 

Vodafone is big enough to ask for, and get, quadband or American centric handsets. Vodafone get a number of exclusive handsets from the manufacturers. I can well imagine that they would ask for more handsets that worked in America if they had a network of their own there.

Again I would say that Vodafone could get UMTS handsets that would work on American and non-American UMTS networks. Vodafone takes a global approach to parts of their business and international intercompatability is important to them, which is one reason they would like to get rid of their Verizon stake if an appropriate opportunity presented itself.

The manufacturers can't really say no Vodafone. They operate in 59 countries through equity interests and partner networks. They have almost 190 million customers (including proportionate customers). No manufacturer worth its salt can afford to ignore that potential customer base.

From what I can see T-Mobile doesn't take quite as strong a global approach. For instance, in some respects Vodafone treats its networks as one large global network, T-Mobile doesn't seem to do this to the same extent as far as I can see. In that light T-Mobile may be losing out on a good opportunity to bring better handsets to America.

 

This is an interesting point in my opinion. If Vodafone were to buy Verizon Wireless (hypothetically because I don't think Verizon would sell), I rather wonder whether Vodafone wouldn't just take the plunge and spend whatever was necessary to convert Verizon completely to GSM/UMTS. It would certainly cost a lot of money, but in Vodafone's eyes it would probably be worth it.

Vodafone seem to operate their networks as one big global network in some respects. They would want to be able to integrate Verizon with the rest of their network and allow their American customers to roam on other Vodafone networks and vice versa.

Interestingly enough, amidst all this speculation, another point arises. If Vodafone did enter the U.S. market directly (as opposed to their stake in Verizon) I wonder whether other global networks might start to get interested. You might end up with the likes of Telefonica Moviles deciding it had better grab a slice of 'the action' to compete with its main rivals in Europe i.e. Vodafone and T-Mobile.

 

good point.....but if Vodafone really wanted to get a complete stake in the American market they can buy one of the carriers that is already GSM and save a lot of cash......but like you said.........2 international companies with 100% stakes in the U.S. market would attract a lot more international attention..........this could also have potentially good changes on the international roaming rates.........Vodafone USA customers would get lower roaming rates out of the country if they are roaming on Vodafone networks overseas.........same with T-Mobile

 

Well I imagine Vodafone would introduce their Passport scheme. Basically when you go abroad and you roam on a Vodafone network, you pay 75p at the start of each call and from then on the call is treated as if you were making it at home. For example, if I am on holiday and phone back to the UK I would pay 75p for the call, which would then either come out of my free minutes or be charged the same per minute charge as if I was back in Blighty.

 

thats pretty cool but as of now i dont think tmobile does that

international presence in the U.S. means more cash flow and advances in the US celular industry as well as a more seamless global experience.....more interconnectability

 

Verizon would never sell there part to Vodafone for any amount of money.

But they did want AT&T Wireless when they were up for sale, and suprisingly enough they lost to Cingular, guess they figured over $40 Billion was too much for them, and if that's the case I could never see them going for Verizon.

I believe a while back it was speculated that for Verizon to buy out Vodafone's share which is 40% (I think & may be wrong) it would cost Verizon over $50 Billion.

 

The "better rates with Vodafone" or the "better rates with T-Mobile" sounds good in practice, but reality says it won't make any difference. Telekom owns both T-Mobile USA and T-Mobile UK, but T-Mobile USA customers don't get any break in the roaming rate they pay in the UK, DE or CZ and neither do they get any break on the roaming rates that they pay when they roam over here. They may have the same parent, but it doesn't necessarily mean that you're going to get a break by using the 'parent' network. With "World Class" rates you get the rate to that country no matter which operator you use. With "legacy" rates T-Mobile is often not the cheapest operator either!

 

I'm not sure it was necessarily a question of being 'too much', after all Cingular pipped them to the post by offering $41 billion. I imagine Vodafone really wanted AT&T, and if they are ever presented with another opportunity like that I can see them pushng a little harder.

 

As I said earlier, I don't think T-Mobile take quite the same global approach to their networks as Vodafone do. Vodafone's Passport scheme offers a relatively good deal for Vodafone customers abroad.

 

If I remember correctly, the board wouldn't allow them to pay more then $40 Billion for AT&T Wireless, so maybe in the future if a national carrier were to go up for sale, they would push harder. Not that I can see this happening anytime soon, but it would be interesting to see what happens if it were to.

 

@Fire14

If anothe ropportunity arose Vodafone would have one of two choices. The first would be to sit tight with their Verizon stake, but have no direct role in the American market. The othe roption would be to sell their Verizon stake and take on the opportunity to compete directly. I think they would opt for the latter.

 

I would be surprised if Vodafone was interested in a non GSM carrier as far as a full buyout, considering the only 2 national ones are Cingular and Tmobile (Cingular wont be up for grabs for quite some time and Tmobile/Vodafone isn't gonna happen) I doubt they'll let go of their stake of Verizon anytime in the near future.

 

yeah i would be surprised if Vodafone went for a CDMA carrier too or even and iDEN.....thats a scary thought..........ummmm.........well i would think Vodafone would probably sell their 40% offering in Verizon to spend money on the direct representation......its more profitable for them......but they really should do that though

 

I agree that it is unlikely Vodafone would opt for a non GSM/UMTS network, but there is one possibility that might persuade them. When 4G is being implemented Vodafone could theoretically buy a non UMTS network and then upgrade it to the new standard. The upgrade would probably be happening anyway so Vodafone could use such a situation as an opportunity.

 

wait im a little confused about your statement......are you saying that Vodafone will probably not buy a non GSM network......but when there is 4G being implemented they might make a move on a CDMA or iDEN network to switch them over........well they can't get Nextel now unless Sprint would give them up....

also as far as I know there is only one 4G technology being used in the U.S. ands thats WiMax...are you saying that Vodafone might buy a non GSM network if they begin to lay down 4G.......just for your info....Sprint is already in the process of rolling out WiMax........

 

Whether WiMax is 4G or not seems to be the subject of some debate as far as I can see. The sort of 4G that is being developed by DoCoMo is faster I believe (data rates of up to 1 Gbps), this is what I had in mind when I mentioned 4G.

I doubt Vodafone would be interested in purchasing nay network to implement WiMax. They haven't shown any great interest in doing so with the networks they already own. Vodafone will probably go down the 4G route with something similar to, if not the same as, the 4G technology being developed by DoCoMo.

 

1. Verizon*
2. Vodafone US**
3. Alltel-Nextel Wireless Corp+
4. Cingular++
5. T-Mobile

* Includes Western Wireless Corp and US Cellular Corp
** Formerly AT&T, includes Sprint PCS
+ I'm sure, had this actually occured, a more clever name for the combined company, like "Synergy," would have been created. They wouldn't have kept the name "Alltel-Nextel," as that would be stupid.
++ Includes Dobson Cellular Systems & SunCom

 

I'm sure they wouldn't name it Synergy. That's too much like a real word More appropriate and weird spelling would have to be Sinergy with an emphasis on the SIN. Or maybe sinArgy to weird up the spelling a bit more.

 

Yeah, I think you're right.

That was kinda fun, actually. Some day, when I have more time I'm going to go back through all the mergers and do a whole post about mergers. Sort of like the What If..? comics I read as a kid.

What if... Alltel hadn't bought 360 Communications? What if... DT hadn't bought T-Mobile. What if... Vodafone bought out Verizon entirely? What if... Motorola went bankrupt and Kyocera was the No 2 handset manufacturer in the world?:loony: