I agree, if the system works people will pay, but sometimes the Price isn't right. I am still a Blue customer that won't migrate over for rollover, just because of their SMS plans or lack of them. As for pagers, yeah I remember those days and when you had one you had to find a payphone to call the person back, then came the bag phones that gave you 30 minutes a month for big bucks. Things have changed dramatically with technology.
You did say "in the long run..." Maybe in the very long run, but don't look for consolidation any time soon. IMHO AT&T has a long tradition of fragmented disorganization. The recent mergers and acquisitions probably haven't helped much, leaving senior management trying to rationalize and make sense out of an organization that didn't make a lot of sense in the first place. So you have organization silos that are designed around lines of business (e.g., cellular), while others are designed around target markets (e.g., residential, small business, enterprise business)... Now let's see, where does the data business reside? Sheesh. Then when you layer in the mix of outsourcing and inhouse stuff... So -- your guess is as good as mine, but in the meantime, don't make any large bets and don't hold your breath!
I wouldn't make any bets on this for sure, but who know's if the New AT&T has a better stratagy plan, but the larger they get the worst it can get for sure.