Rumor: Centennial is looking to be bought out!

Would Alltel also be an interested candidate?

 

I would think so too... but maybe they want some time after the last merger. I'd bet USCC will take advantage of it

 

maybe T-Mobile
since they have roaming agreements w/ them.

 

So is Centennial going bankrupt? Is that why they're selling?

 

So the Blue network coverage maps is Centennial's own footprint?
http://www.centennialwireless.com/coverage/index.shtml

If so, Verizon could be interested since they'd get native service in a lot more places, parts of TX.

 

it looks that way. Maybe verizon maybe interested after all..

 

Thanks for the link to the maps.
How interested to you think Verizon is in this, Agent?

 

These maps include Centennial's roaming partners coverage as well so this isn't a good indication of their native coverage.....

 

That's what I figured, otherwise their coverage footprint would be huge. So I guess there are no native coverage maps available, only license maps.

 

I believe the "Primary Service Area" is accurate as native coverage, at least in the Michigan Central map.

http://www.centennialwireless.com/images/c_mi_blue_region_coverage.gif

 

Speaking of the caribbean, as far as Puerto Rico, that would be the only place where Cingular would have to divest Centennial properties, but in the other Islands I don't see why. Verizon, on the other hand would probably need to divest it in PR.

Besides PR, both Centennial and Verizon also exist in the Dominican Republic so if Cingular got Centennial that would be one more place where they would compete with each other. The only problem is that Verizon has the 850Mhz license and Centennial only has 1900Mhz in DR. That would be competition at a disadvantage since Verizon has so much widespread AMPS coverage in the mountains of DR where most digital carriers fail.

From Cingular's perspective, I don't think they would be interested. For one, Centennial has lots of Caribbean properties which I think Cingular is not too interested in serving, although they have kept Cayman Islands and Bermuda. Another thing is that Centennial has lots of CDMA service which Cingular would have to invest to convert to GSM, especially in PR and DR where Centennial is all CDMA.

I see Verizon or Alltel as more possible acquirers.

 

I think I'm going to give my vote to Dobson. They've been raising money and making moves lately. I'd almost say there could be a 4-6 carrier exchange of properties over this company.

Dan

 

Perhaps Centennial would get more money if they split into three areas to sell. It's parts may be more valuable than its sum:

1) Caribbean
2) Lousianna/Mississippi.
3) Indianna/Michigan/Ohio.


The reason I say this is that so many of the possibilities involve whomever buys to turn around and divest again. Therefore, they might not be as excited about buying unless they can just buy what they need.

1) Caribbean,
I think everybody raised good points in this area. I would just add not to forget Alltel. Though they had WWCA sell their European assets, they still have properties in Hatti and Bolivia. (FYI: Hatti is the eastern part of the island of Hispaniola; the Dominican Republic is the western part. For a map:

http://worldatlas.com/webimage/countrys/namerica/caribb/special/westind.htm)

I haven't heard anything about Alltel divesting their western hemisphere foreign assets. Perhaps Alltel doesn't mind keeping them. If that is true, assets in PR and the Virgin Islands would be not that far from what they have in Hatti.

2) LA/Miss
Alltel:
They would love to fill their gap in southern LA and Southwestern Miss even if it meant they would have to divest from the central LA overlap. Though Centennial is GSM, Alltel has no problem with that as parts of WWCA were overlapped with GSM. They could retrofit the towers with both GSM/CDMA. They would like the roaming monies from GSM roamers. For the overlap perhaps they could sell that to Cingular since that is a good chunck of the part that Cingular would want. Or perhaps they could sell to Cellular South.

Cellular South:
I don't know how well Cellular South does and if they have the finances, Buying Centennials properties here would be a natural extention for them. I know they are CDMA, so they would have to invest money to add CDMA if they were the buyer.

Dobson:
I suppose Dobson might want this if they have cash to burn. Their closest coverage is in Texas which isn't too far away, but at the same time it isn't adjecent.

T-mobile:
T-mobile might be interested since they just signed a roaming agreement with Centennial. They probably understand the management mindset given their recent dealings.

Cingular:
Cingular I think would be a long shot as they would have to turn around and divest most of what they purchased given that they mainly need the northern part of Centennials licensed area. SBC (60% of Cingular) probably isn't in a buying mood given that they just purchased AT&T.

Verizon:
Verizon could be interested, but why bother? IF Alltel had a strong push to buy Centennial, they would reap the benefits for 4 years without spending a dime.

3) Indianna, Michigan, Ohio
Dobson would be the perfect candidate for this. It fits in with their coverage in the great lakes region.

Cingular: I'm sure they would like some of this area, but they would have to turn around and divest a good chunk of it.

T-mobile: Again, they have the recent roaming agreement, perhaps they would be interested.

Verizon: I don't see where they gain much. They have licenses in most of these areas, and where they don't they have Alltel.

Alltel: If they wanted Coverage in Indianna, they might be interested. However, the Michigan and Ohio would all be overlaps. Plus in Indianna they would be competing head on with US Cellular near their home turf -- Chicago. I don't see them wanting to do that. The only benefit I could see for them would be if they could buy this area and entice to give it to Dobson as a swap for what they really need. If you look at Alltel's National Freedom Plan, Alltel is hurting most in KY.

(National Freedom Plan map: http://www.alltel.com/personal/wireless/images/nat_freedom_map_775.gif)

I'm sure they would also like to have a few other areas from Dobson such as Az and Mn. However, I assume to buy this just for swapping rights with another carrier would be a far call.

US Cellular: They have a good portion of this area already, so I don't see any benefit wanting in on this sell.

 

I think you got your fingers crossed there. Haiti (this is the correct spelling) is the western part of the island and Dominican Rep. is the eastern 2/3rds of it. I lived there for my first 17 years.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hispaniola

Anyway, T-Mobile is a little slow when it comes to acquisitions. So I wouldn't place my hopes in them. They haven't sent any signals about buying Suncom yet. However, T-Mo would be my favorite buyer for Centennial. They are all GSM 1900Mhz just like Suncom in the US. In addition to that, a T-Mobile acquisition of Centennial will help them with the spectrum and extend their brand to the caribbean as well which would be nice.

If T-Mo bought Centennial, one nice thing about the caribbean, specifically in Dom. Rep. is that since Orange already offers service there (the only GSM carrier in DR), converting the existing Centennial to T-Mobile means that Orange and T-Mobile would compete in an island dominated by CDMA carriers (Verizon, Tricom and Centennial). T-Mobile would of course convert Centennial's network to GSM first.

 

There's no way Centennial will go in one piece.

LA/MS: Alltel makes by far the most sense, but Alltel would likely be required to divest one system or the other in the Alexandria, LA area, where both are 850. My guess is if that were to happen, Alltel would let their current license for and customers in the Alexandria area to go to Cingular, as getting rid of the Centennial license there is troublesome since Centennial's switches for the whole region happen to be in Alexandria. Alltel certainly has no trouble with taking over carriers with GSM roamer networks (WWCA) or even carriers with GSM customers (PSC)...

Cellular South is pretty much out because of excessive 850 overlap in Mississippi, although Cingular's relatively strong 1900 coverage in the area could be enough to sway the FCC to let them hold onto both 850 licenses; still, I think Centennial being GSM makes them unattractive to CS. Cingular taking the area over is unquestionably out because of excessive 850 overlap in southwestern Louisiana (if Cingular hadn't bought US Unwired's cellular business it might be doable) and Cingular's rocky relations with Pace/Kaplan in Vermilion Parish (taking over Centennial would put Cingular in direct competition with Pace/Kaplan -- when Pace/Kaplan runs off Cingular's switches.)

IN/MI: Dobson or Cingular taking that area is pretty much a given.

Caribbean: That's a trickier one. T-Mobile is a narrow possibility, in part because of SunCom being in play (SunCom would fix the TMO hole in Puerto Rico) and in part because a conversion from CDMA would be required. Personally, I see the Caribbean stuff being sold off to a non-US carrier, but I can't think of any in particular that would be interested, largely because of the technology issue.

-SC