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CDMA market to shrink

Discussion in 'GENERAL Wireless Discussion' started by jones, Jun 22, 2006.

  1. scotsboyuk

    scotsboyuk Senior Member
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    @jones

    I have no idea. You posted the chart, I was hoping you might know.
     
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  2. daniel 711

    daniel 711 New Member

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    Such wishful thinking!!;)
    CDMA is here to stay - nay sayers are very jealous...

    There is never a shortage of FUD (Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt) surrounding Qualcomm. Actually, I should add controversy to this list too. However, even though such FUD and Controversy has been around for years, Qualcomm has continued to grow and, most recently, increase its guidance for expected future growth. When given the choice to listen to the rumors of journalists and analysts or the numbers, I'll take the numbers any time.

    I think the central thing to remember here is that Qualcomm has the high value position in this taxonomy and, as such, other players are jealous and want a bigger piece of the profit pie or, in the case of India, wants Qualcomm to relinquish some of its value to facilitate lower pricing.

    Nokia has long been frustrated by Qualcomm and even though its been a significant customer for Qualcomm, the relationship has been rocky at best. Just recently, Qualcomm filed a suit against Nokia claiming the company has violated 11 U.S. patents in GSM (note, not CDMA, but GSM). Due to this and the fact that Nokia is in the process of negotiating a new royalty agreement with Qualcomm, I think it's only natural to expect sabers to rattle. Again, although there's a long customer/supplier relationship here, it has been contemptuous for as long as I can remember.

    It's been well known for some time that India has been pressuring Qualcomm for concessions in its CDMA royalty agreement. Since I don't know exactly where this stands, I can't provide any comments of value. However, I am aware of two CDMA Ultra-Low-Cost Handsets (ULCH) being offered there; one at $36 and the other at $33 (I assume this requires an agreement that, according to what I've read, usually costs about $10 per month in India).

    While I won't deny for a minute that Qualcomm faces competition and challenges, my tendency is to believe we're more likely to see its CEO, Paul Jacobs, holding up a copy of the reports predicting the companies demise with the same grin President Truman did when holding up the mistaken headline, "Dewey Defeats Truman." In other words, I think these recent reports of Qualcomm's grim future are wrong and that even if Qualcomm travels down a rougher road than what its fans are predicting, the company will adapt and do well.
     
  3. strunke

    strunke .:|Always Covered|:.
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    at scotsboyuk...

    That is mostly what I was basing it off, government wise, then I thought that many then dislike the people themselves for it. I've seen it happen. A guy I know moved to England when he was a freshmen and sophomore in high school. He got in to a large number of fights with other guys there for no other reason then he was American (ok, ok, he had a tendancy to run his mouth a bit. But the fights were still excessive). I guess that I am wrong about the Europeans disliking the CDMA technology just to be different, it is too broad of a statement. I do know that Europe consists of many different countries...But, many share the same political views toward the us government. So generalizations on this off-topic we've landed on are not inaccurate. I dislike France's government, but the rest of Europe is ok by me. Does that mean that all American's dislike France's government? No, but the majority do (at least the ones that care enough to know what is going on.)

    Ok back on topic....

    Yes America is definately more of a car culture. We are obsessed with them, unless you grow up in NYC and don't have as much a need for one as say Joe Schmoe in Nebraska who drives 50 miles every day back and forth to work everyday. So that is right on, using public transportation definately gives you more gadget time. It's like MobiTv offered here, I think to myself, when am I ever going to need to watch TV on my cell phone?

    Jones that chart is worldwide I'm assuming?
     
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  4. scotsboyuk

    scotsboyuk Senior Member
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    Most people aren't daft, they can tell the difference between a government and the people.

    Two points here: first of all this is hardly a basis for a sweeping generalisation involving all Europeans and secondly, it sounds as if your chum might not have been entirely blameless with regards to those fights.

    I doubt whether most Europeans could tell you what standard they are using never mind give you an opinion on a competing standard. That's not to say people are stupid or anything like that, but I doubt whether many people are actually interested. Of course us mobile geek types debate such issues until the cows come home, but for the average customer it probably isn't all that important.

    I don't really want to take this thread any further off-topic than it is already so I am going to try and be brief. We weren't talking about attitudes towards the U.S. government though, your previous generalisations were concerning attitudes towards America as a whole. Many people might dislike the U.S. government, but then again there are also probably quite a few people who don't.

    Who you like and dislike is your own business; personally I don't see that one's opinion of the French government has much to do with this topic.

    Of course that is just one example, but what I was trying to demonstrate is that it isn't necessarily a case of not having the most advanced features as it is sometimes a case of there being less incentive for those features to be introduced.
     
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  5. scotsboyuk

    scotsboyuk Senior Member
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    I'm not sure whether I am a naysayer or not, but I'm definitely not jealous! :p

    The trouble for Qualcomm is that networks can decide to use WCDMA, which I believe has a smaller royalty fee for Qualcomm (and the matter still seems to be under dispute) rather than use a standard, which would give Qualcomm a larger royalty payment.

    I think Nokia has gone beyond rattling its saber and has actually broken it! They can't get much more serious than to actually stop researching and producing CDMA handsets.

    I don't think we should necessarily be predicting an end to CDMA (at least not in the short term anyway). However, you now have both Nokia and SOny Ericsson no longer making CDMA handsets. If enough manufacturers follow suit then CDMA networks are going to come under pressure to switch to either GSM or WCDMA.

    The U.S. isn't at saturation point yet, so there is still room for growth, but when saturation does come the networks are going to find themselves competing ever more fiercely across all fronts. One of the most important fronts is handsets. Here in the UK there are five main networks, the four biggest of which are all roughly equal. It is a coup if one of them can get a major handset as an exclusive because it is one of the ways they can try and gain new customers in a country that has a mobile penetration rate of 113%.
     
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  6. Telekom

    Telekom Bronze Senior Member
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    What VeriZon (the largest CDMA operator) has as its main plus is the strength of their network. Their native network along with the partner networks they have agreements with has the best network as far as reliability and as far as being the network that's the most far-reaching. Part of the reason for that is that for the most part they're a legacy network which had its origins at the beginning of cellular service in the US. The card that VeriZon deals is the best coverage. This is really for the most part removed from the technology that they use. They'd be just as successful if when they decided to go with a digital standard to go along with their analogue AMPS service they went with CDMA. Also part of the reason for going with CDMA is CDMA allows "soft" handoffs from digital to analogue. It was in the specification for CDMA from the outset. Such was never the case for GSM. There were a scant few "kludges" for GSM/analog roaming. That never really worked very well since when you lost the GSM signal your call dropped rather than transferred over to analog. The other obsolete digital standard IS-136 aka "TDMA" could also do soft handoffs between digital and analogue AMPS. Another distinct disadvantage that GSM had in North America was that at the outset of GSM in North America GSM was only on the "PCS" band (1900 Mhz) and PCS generally doesn't perform as well as cellular (800/850 Mhz) For GSM in the US the first company to have a major network (largely through acquisitions of smaller operators) was VoiceStream which in 2002 became T-Mobile. GSM was "overlaid" on TDMA systems of the major IS-136/TDMA operators AT&T Wireless and cingular which only had native PCS GSM on the west coast and principally on the east coast in the Carolinas. AT&T Wireless had 1900/PCS in all the areas that they served so they were equipped to offer GSM in all their markets. Short story is that AT&T's deployment of GSM was disastrous since they could not offer (at that time) GSM using cellular (800/850 Mhz) because GSM radios for 850 weren't available and also there were no handsets that could do 850 and 1900 as there are now. Only 1900 handsets and base station radios were available. It didn't go well for AT&T and eventually when things got really bad for AT&T Wireless the company went for sale and cingular bought them. With cingular's buying AT&T Wireless they became the number 1 wireless carrier (as far as the number of subscribers they then had.) At any rate GSM didn't get any major foothold in the US (and also Canada) til 2002 mostly. There was some GSM development in both Canada and the US in the mid nineties (VoiceStream in the US and Fido in Canada.)
     
  7. strunke

    strunke .:|Always Covered|:.
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    I guess I'm not explaining it well enough. I gave the french gov't as an example of generalization that is true for the people in the U.S., me generalizing about Europe and their attitudes toward the american people is the one that I was wrong with. That is what the french has to do with it.

    I was using the attitudes towards the US government as a precursor to what I would expect in Europe of the attitudes toward the american people as a whole. That example involving the guy I knew is one of many other things that I have based that generalization on, one which I have already stated must be false because you live there and would know. I also did mention he wasn't blameless (running of the mouth).

    I was agreeing with you about the advanced features. :)
     
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  8. jones

    jones Silver Senior Member
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    Yes, it's worldwide.
    As you can see on the Chart 3G
    will be Divided into 2 Camps:
    evdo(their upgrades Rev a,b) VS wcdma(their upgrades hsdpa,hsupa).
     
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  9. scotsboyuk

    scotsboyuk Senior Member
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  10. scotsboyuk

    scotsboyuk Senior Member
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    But then I doubt whether every American hates the French government. Does your dislike of the French government extend to the French people? At any rate, I still fail to see what one's opinion of the French government has to do with a deal between Nokia and Sanyo or Qualcomm's policies with regard to India or how CDMA operates in the United States.

    As I said, some people probably do dislike Americans, but then people dislike other people all over the world. What are the 'many other things'? (I am just wondering if perhaps we should continue this via pm or a new thread so as not to keep taking this thread off-topic.)

    Yes I know you were, but I was replying as an arrogant and patronising European. :p :lmao:
     
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  11. viewfly

    viewfly Mobile RF Advisor
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    I've tried staying out of this messy discussion, but I have to throw in my 2 cents.

    This is really not a question about which technology is better, it is more about standards, interchangable handsets (via SIM cards) and global commerce. I think all of these are great features.

    When jones makes his posts like this one, I view this as data supporting the growing dominance of GSM and the WCDMA standard, not whether GSM is better than CDMA, or if CDMA 'won'.

    An example. Imagine that there never was Analog,TDMA, GSM or CDMA (the current Verizon 2G format).

    From day one of cell/mobile service there were only 2 'systems': WCDMA and CDMA2000, both 3G. WCMDA is all in the EU and most of the rest of the world( say 80%), and in two large US companies (Cingular & Tmobile). CDMA2000 has the smaller world market, and Verizon & Sprint in the US. Within each market, there are no more 'dead' coverage spots: the US is completely coveraged. However, the CDMA2000 and WCDMA, like today, do not exist in one handset. Qualcomm makes patent money from both systems: it's win -win for them.

    I would still chose WCMDA because of the world coverage advantage. I think most people would too, even if they never travel. And if you overlay a map of the EU over the US, you can see why the EU mandates a standard: it helps EU commerce in such a collection of small countries. Likewise a global communication standard does the same for US.

    The US likes standards too, not just the EU. This is why so much time is being spent deciding on a digital TV standard. We don't want different broadcasters to have different TV standards. Fortunately, one cannot carry TV sets while traveling to other countries, but the different standards that exist now also discourage that.

    True, standards can be boring sometimes, but with the numerous handsets on the markets today, that is not the issue.

    The real question is weather Verizon wishes to continue to hang onto to it CDMA2000 3G pathway, or join the global telecom dominance with WCDMA and any future system after that. WCDMA/GSM handsets are being made today, and we will see many more on the way.

    Isn't it amazing that I can take an AM/FM/shortwave radio anywhere in the world and listen to local stations?
     
  12. strunke

    strunke .:|Always Covered|:.
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    Eh, no, it's not that big of deal. Back to the topic...

    My CDMA can beat up your GSM!....unless you call all your worldwide friends.....:biggrin:
     
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  13. Telekom

    Telekom Bronze Senior Member
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  14. Telekom

    Telekom Bronze Senior Member
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    Well, more than that you can take a DTMF "touch-tone" phone from the US and use it on pretty much any system world-wide. The standard for dual tone multi frequency was agreed upon as a standard. Same with dial pulse. Yes, you may have to modify the wiring somewhat to make it work but for the most part it just works.

    Even on DVDs if you remove the region encoding you can play a DVD pretty much anywhere and disregard whether a particular country uses PAL, NTSC or SECAM.
     
  15. scotsboyuk

    scotsboyuk Senior Member
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  16. viewfly

    viewfly Mobile RF Advisor
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    Yes, that certainly is true. Even CDs can be bought most anywhere.
     
  17. scotsboyuk

    scotsboyuk Senior Member
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    My GSM handset has WCDMA too, so that's double! :p
     
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  18. eagle63

    eagle63 Junior Member
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    I didn't know CDMA could handoff between analog at all, let alone a soft handoff. My brother who is a Verizon customer, hits a spot during his commute every day which transitions from native Verizon coverage to a CDMA roaming partner. (Midwest Wireless) He can't even handoff between the 2 networks, even though they're roaming partners. (this is digital to digital) His call will drop every time at the exact same spot. He needs to wait a few seconds until he hits a point where he's firmly in Midwest Wireless's coverage, and then initiate his call again.

    Speaking of soft handoffs, does anyone know if UMTS allows for this? That's one nice little perk about CDMA. Whenever i'm talking to a GSM user who's driving, I can usually here his phone handoff. (a very brief pause in the audio) With CDMA you almost never hear it since it's a soft handoff.
     
  19. MeatChicken

    MeatChicken Senior Member
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    CDMA can HARD handoff the call to analog only, soft handoff is stictly a CDMA air digital process, it is not possible in CDMA to Analog, nor TDMA, IDEN or GSM.
     
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  20. bobolito

    bobolito Diamond Senior Member
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    Yes, UMTS is WCDMA based, therefore, it uses soft handoffs.
     
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  21. alltelwirelesstech

    alltelwirelesstech Senior Member
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    The reason it drops is its not just changing towers, its changing entire switches. The VLR in one switch is being deleted and the phone is generating a new VLR in the other company's switch. This can happen on the same carrier as well. If you leave an area say served by lets say for example charlotte, nc (covers about 300+ miles) and start to go to Raleigh switch, the call will drop as it changes entire switches.
     
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  22. eagle63

    eagle63 Junior Member
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    That's pretty lame. So how then can a CDMA call handoff to AMPS?? I don't believe Sprint owns many analog sites, so I'm presuming you'd be changing switches here too....

    Does GSM have this problem? (I'm assuming so if it's an issue with the switch)
     
  23. hillbilly44

    hillbilly44 Senior Member
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    You can only do a handoff between switches IF you have the trunking(transport (T-1's)) between the switches. Then the handoffs must be enabled between the Switch, BSC, BTS, etc.;)
     
  24. Telekom

    Telekom Bronze Senior Member
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    Sprint owns zero analog. That's why the company before they joined with Nextel was known as Sprint PCS! Any analog that Sprint might use is always roaming on someone else's system. Sprint has no analog AMPS at all.
     
  25. eagle63

    eagle63 Junior Member
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    Exactly, that was my point. So my question again is: how can a call (on Sprint) handoff between native Sprint CDMA and an AMPS tower?? (being that the AMPS tower is a different provider, and therefore likely a different switch)
     
  26. jones

    jones Silver Senior Member
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    Sagem: LatAm GSM base to grow 85-90% in 2006

    French mobile equipment manufacturer Sagem expects Latin America's GSM handset market to grow 85-90% in 2006 compared to 2005, Sagem Latin America VP and general manager Víctor Díaz told BNamericas.

    "It is well known that GSM technology has grown considerably in 2005 and we expect a strong increase in 2006. Sagem in particular has been performing well in Colombia, Venezuela, Chile and Mexico so our expectations are large," he said.

    In Chile, the company expects sales to go up mostly because of migration to GSM technology by mobile operator Smartcom, the local unit of Mexico's América Móvil (NYSE: AMX).

    GSM technology is now responsible for more than 50% of mobile users in Latin America and the Caribbean, with a subscriber base of more than 119 million at the end of 2005, according to statistics from GSM industry association 3G Americas.

    Sagem entered Latin America three years ago, with an initial offering targeting the prepaid segment and basic models focused on voice services. The company has now expanded its portfolio with more advanced products.

    The company is launching high-end handsets such as myX-8? and myX6-2? and another two products oriented to the mid market: myX-7? and my301L. These are the same models that have been successful in Europe because of their design and features, according to Díaz.

    Díaz sees Sagem growing considerably in the phone replacement business during 2006, more likely among users that are looking for mid-range and high-end products, while sales for first time users are expected to reach similar levels as in 2005.

    "[Latin America] is a very important market and we are investing heavily to launch these new phones. Users are no longer looking for basic telephones but for devices with cameras or Bluetooth. And Sagem's European style allows users to treat their handsets as fashion accessories," he added.

    According to the executive, 2005 was the year in which users were looking for phones with built-in digital cameras, while in 2006 and 2007 users will be searching more for devices with MP3 players.

    BNAmericas.com




    Posted on 10-07-2006

    Read this article on the web at: www.cellular-news.com/story/18183.php
     
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  27. TKR

    TKR Senior Member
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    It don't think they can. It is my understanding a call can handoff from CDMA to AMPS if it is on the same system/switch. For example, Verizon CDMA to AMPTS handoff. I know of no ability to handoff from a native Sprint system to any other non-native system, CDMA or AMPS. It might be technically possible, but I know of no such implementation. If you are already roaming digitally on Alltel or VZW, then you might could expreience a CDMA to AMPS handoff.
     
  28. Andy

    Andy Diamond Senior Member
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    So you are saying a call on the ALLTEL network will drop just because the call switches to a different ALLTEL switch??? That would be pretty lame. I have never experienced a dropped call on Verizon(at least in my travels) because the call was switching to a different SID/Switch.
     
  29. Telekom

    Telekom Bronze Senior Member
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    AFAIK the only reason a call should drop is if you switched between systems. There should be no dropped call at all if it's just handing off to another cell within the same syste. I even think a soft handoff can happen between digital and analog. However, once in analog you will not hand back into digital. You have to terminate the call on analog and reconnect to digital.
     
  30. RJB

    RJB Gold Senior Member
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    Man I feel lucky and fotunate to have a mobile phone let alone what technology I use.
     

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