Apple Apple to report worst quarter in over a decade

NOW WAIT JUST ONE STINKIN' MINUTE! I never said that.
(I may have thought it, but I never said it.)

In actuality, the whole wireless industry (device makers) are feeling the pinch. I've read articles that the USA has reached what can rightly be called the "saturation point." From here on out, they are basically in maintenance (upgrades) mode. It is just part of the circle of life.

 

It makes sense that they would. The iPhone SE is already a step in that direction and the one they got mostly right (compared to the iPhone 5c experiment). I'm not surprised that the tablet sales are falling, the market was probably not nearly as big as the phones to begin with, the upgrade cycles are much longer, so it's possible that's at the saturation point too.

 

There is no question the market for smartphone, tablets, and desktops has flattened out, for everybody. These big companies are the victims of there own successes.

@plandri Apple has already started branching out to ideas involving cable boxes, electric cars, home automation, and the like.

Even my own sample of 1, me, I wonder the purpose of upgrading every S cycle. The larger screen was such a success for Apple, it is hard to beat on top of everything else that is bewitching with the markets. I think many didn't upgrade to the S, since the 6 was so good. Smaller and less useful increments are happening today, also.

The 2nd quarter is a tough one for Apple. Off cycle and doesn't include the SE models.

Do consider this, before you run off to a more threatened company like Samsung ( I know it was just a joke, Palandri)

From the Wall Street Journal:

"But for all of the concerns about Apple’s growth, the company still generated profits in the March quarter that are expected to exceed the combined earnings of technology peers Alphabet Inc.(aka Google), Facebook Inc. and Amazon.com Inc.

Apple said more Android users switched to iPhones in the first six months of its fiscal year starting in October than any previous six-month period."

In those 13 years, the market cap of Apple has grown from $5B to $579B. They will be around for a while.




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I don't understand the seemingly panicked attitude I've read on mobile info sites on Apple's worst quarter in more than a decade. Apple is Apple. They still make more that some other mobile companies make combined. Apple makes great products, whether their sales stall or not. This was bound to happen and once the iPhone 7 comes out, this will be forgotten.

 

And then there's this:
http://www.cnet.com/news/iphone-se-demand-outstripping-supply-says-apple/

 

Yes, the news stories are a bit dramatic. But it is worthy to note the business change for the quarter. It's more it's meaning is uncertain.


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...because:

Wall Street looks for growth. Apple not only missed their targets, but declined for the first time. Bad signs. Not that it's the end of the road for them, but the road is going in the wrong direction. And as noted in previous posts, the phone market in general is getting flat. Another bad sign. Apple has mountains of money and will be fine for a long time, but to keep their value, they need to show they got something new up their sleeve that can generate more growth. The watch and TV were just side-shows so far, the iPhone is their cash-cow. And it's been a good ride so far for them. But when you look back at former giants BlackBerry and Nokia, you can't help wondering when the other shoe is going to drop....

 

That analysis is contradictory,RR.

The reasons for the demise of BB and Nokia had nothing to do with a flat market for smartphones, just the opposite in fact. They missed the rising sea completely.

There is no one out there with an outpacing technology in the long term, chipping at Apples door.

The idea of making cheaper phones only hurts Apple since revenues decline in a flat market.

I think the real test will be with the iPhone 7. Even so the comparison to the launch of the 6 was a high benchmark to reach.

For the most part many companies at the very top ignore year to year analysts that look for growth. Investment analysts make money selling growth stocks to consumers, the companies make money selling products to consumers. Companies have longer range targets.


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Yeah, I don't think it's time to worry about Apple or even Samsung for that matter, as long as they're making profit they'll be fine (even if the profit doesn't increase or even declines). It's only stockholders and would be stockholders who need to worry

 

According to a recent SamMobile article, Samsung's S7 sales have helped them considerably. But as usual, SamMobile is only reporting half the facts (for which I hate them). In another report I read today, Chinese makers have taken the 3rd, 4th, and 5th spots on global sales of smartphones.....

Quoting....
"Global smartphone shipments declined for the first time ever on a year-over-year basis in the first quarter, two research firms reported Thursday.

Juniper Research said that smartphone shipments fell nearly 6% on an annual basis to 320 million units in Q1.

Strategy Analytics estimated that smartphone shipments declined 3% to 335 million units last quarter.

“It is the first time ever, since the modern smartphone market began in 1996, that global shipments have shrunk on an annualized basis,” Strategy Analytics analyst Linda Sui said in a blog post. “Smartphone growth is slowing due to increasing penetration maturity in major markets like China and consumer caution about the future of the world economy.”

Samsung and Apple (AAPL), the two largest smartphone vendors, both posted declines in the quarter.

Samsung’s smartphone shipments fell 4% to 79 million units in Q1. Apple’s iPhone shipments dipped 16% to 51.2 million units in Q1, Strategy Analytics said.

Samsung was the No. 1 vendor, with 23.6% market share, followed by Apple, with 15.3%. Both lost ground to fast-growing Chinese smartphone makers including Huawei, Oppo and Vivo." Source

Here's another interesting article from Japan:
http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20...s-gaining-ground-bang-less-buck/#.VyKU6jArKUk

 

Depends how you look at it. I see it that BlackBerry and Nokia didn't diversify, and had all their eggs in one basket (ie: mobile phones), similar to Apple's position. Whatever the reason for the winds to change, they did. Today, low and mid-price handsets are nearly as good as the top-end ones, and people aren't as "excited" about phones as they were years ago. The market is flattening, competition is stronger, and it's getting harder to justify $800 for a phone that's only marginally better than a $200 or $300 one. Apple does have people locked into their eco-system tho, so that's a plus for them. Most people I know with iPhones don't want to change because they are used to Apple's phones and ecosystems. But then look at all the "Crackberry" addicts who never imagined leaving BlackBerry because they were so locked into the keypad and BBM....so who knows....

...but it's the investors who give the company it's worth/value. If they all bailed the company would go broke. Yesterday Icahn just sold every share of Apple that he owns. Alot of people look to him when doing their own investments. For sure Apple won't suddenly go bankrupt, but the direction just turned, Apple is no longer sky-rocketing, on the contrary, some people feel they made their money when the stock was rising, and now it's time to bail before it starts to fall.

 

RR, internally neither BB nor Nokia, would agree with you, nor most business professionals. There was plenty of room to make billions for them in phone sales.

Solid companies make money selling products, not stocks. Many private companies do quite well without investors. As do solid public companies make increasing revenue year over year, with relatively flat stocks, paying out dividends.

China's markets are the ultimate walled garden, certainly, and a problem for everyone from soup to nuts. Icahn will be back if things change, but his interest is in rapid stock growth and speculation , not products

Detailing all the business reasons is not limited to Apple, and that would be a subject for another thread topic perhaps.

 

As long as the company isn't buying the stock back from the investors the shares are still out there and the company's income is unaffected Somebody sells, somebody else buys.

 

Apple is worth $x billions and is the most “valuable company in the world” because of their stock price. Their stock price is high because they kept outpacing themselves on phone sales, and investors loved it. Now it looks like the tune is changing, and the party may be over. At least Icahn seems to think so. If Apple went private, they would still make money, but their value wouldn’t be anywhere near what it is now. I’m sure they do good business selling $150 worth of electronics for $800, but with low/mid-range phones closing the gap, I don’t know how long Apple will be able to keep getting away with that kind of profit margin.



We’ll see I guess. But I would say the general outlook is not too bright. But I’ll give them credit, I thought after Jobs passed away in 2011 that Apple would start to decline in 2-3 years, the fact they kept climbing for over 4 years already exceeded my expectations. But it was bound to happen eventually, what goes up must come down.

 

Good point, dmapr.

 

Apple is a hardware company and with the SE you can't get one in fewer than three weeks. Terrible launch for a somewhat new product.

That might prove not a big problem for them but it might be in the future since they are a hardware manufacturer. I don't think things like cable boxes are going to boost their sales or revenue. Maybe they should look in to some type of content delivery, more things like Apple Music.