US to pass 100% Wireless saturation by 2013

[Fire14]

USA to Pass 100% Mobile Penetration Level by 2013 - report

In a new study, SNL Kagan estimates that 84% of the USA population, including consumer, business and double users, will have mobile phones by the end of 2007, with this percentage surging past 100% by 2013.

SNL Kagan's research also shows that US cell phone subscriptions will grow at a rate of about 3% per year over the next decade versus total population growth of only 1%, despite decreasing net additions as 100% penetration is approached. These projections anticipate increased data use, including text, Web and video, which could be accelerated by new player business models where multimedia services get partially subsidized by advertising, similar to the approaches just starting to be tested by Google, YouTube and others.

SNL Kagan expects total industry average revenue per user (ARPU) to grow at an inflation-paced compound annual growth rate of 1.5% over the next 10 years, from US$52.38 today to US$61.09 by 2017. Industry hopes run much higher for data ARPU, which is already in the high single digits and grew a significant 45% from the first quarter of 2006 to the first quarter of 2007 from US$5.92 to US$8.58.

"If carriers can hold onto their position in the revenue chain, data is poised to give them a second growth spurt," says SNL Kagan senior analyst Sharon Armbrust. "While subscriber units and voice revenue will inch along, we expect data revenue to grow at a compound annual 14% rate over the next 10 years, rising to at least 22% of service revenue, compared to under 10% today."


USA to Pass 100% Mobile Penetration Level by 2013 - report

[Telekom]

And there are several countries that have 120% or more penetration!

Originally Posted by Fire14 USA to Pass 100% Mobile Penetration Level by 2013 - report In a new study, SNL Kagan estimates that 84% of the USA population, including consumer, business and double users, will have mobile phones by the end of 2007, with this percentage surging past 100% by 2013. SNL Kagan's research also shows that US cell phone subscriptions will grow at a rate of about 3% per year over the next decade versus total population growth of only 1%, despite decreasing net additions as 100% penetration is approached. These projections anticipate increased data use, including text, Web and video, which could be accelerated by new player business models where multimedia services get partially subsidized by advertising, similar to the approaches just starting to be tested by Google, YouTube and others. SNL Kagan expects total industry average revenue per user (ARPU) to grow at an inflation-paced compound annual growth rate of 1.5% over the next 10 years, from US$52.38 today to US$61.09 by 2017. Industry hopes run much higher for data ARPU, which is already in the high single digits and grew a significant 45% from the first quarter of 2006 to the first quarter of 2007 from US$5.92 to US$8.58. "If carriers can hold onto their position in the revenue chain, data is poised to give them a second growth spurt," says SNL Kagan senior analyst Sharon Armbrust. "While subscriber units and voice revenue will inch along, we expect data revenue to grow at a compound annual 14% rate over the next 10 years, rising to at least 22% of service revenue, compared to under 10% today." USA to Pass 100% Mobile Penetration Level by 2013 - report

[Mobile Mike]

I would have thought we'd hit 100% percent saturation long before 2013...

[RJB]

You know that is amazing to this that this could happen. Imagine if china did this lol that is alot of phones.

[bobolito]

Originally Posted by Mobile Mike I would have thought we'd hit 100% percent saturation long before 2013...

That's because it's a very complex percentage to calculate. You have to consider that while millions are getting phone service every quarter, at the same time the available market is being reduced in size leaving only the most resistant customers who are usually the elderly or handicapped who either don't need/want a wireless phone, or can't use one for whatever reason (physical/mentally disabled). This is the most important factor in the deceleration of overall growth which makes it tougher to reach 100% as the customer base grows.

At the same time you have a young population growing up and as they become teenagers, they will be new wireless customers, but then at the same time you have the older segment of the population who is getting disabled and can't use a wireless phone anymore, or they'll pass away. Those become lost customers. In addition to that, you have people that every day become part of the US population (immigration) and those who for one reason or another move out of the US. That adds and removes the potential customer base and partially adds and subtracts wireless customers. To add an even more odd twist to the calculation, you have to consider those customers who have more than one phone, for instance, those who have one phone for work and another one for personal use. Each of them is counted as two customers because they carry two phones. That's why in some places saturation has surpassed 100% of the population, which still doesn't necessarily mean that every person in that country has a wireless phone. That only means that the number of active wireless accounts surpasses the number of people in that country, which means that some people may own more than one account, while others may not have any wireless account. So take all these factors into consideration and you have a very complex projection estimate to calculate.

It is important to note that one thing that should not be included in this calculation is the number of people that switch wireless carriers, since no matter which carrier they use, they are still wireless customers. So we can't go exclusively by the numbers wireless carriers publish every quarter.

[Fire14]

Originally Posted by bobolito It is important to note that one thing that should not be included in this calculation is the number of people that switch wireless carriers, since no matter which carrier they use, they are still wireless customers. So we can't go exclusively by the numbers wireless carriers publish every quarter.

This is very true, if they are counting these people by both carriers then the data is really off.
You did cover a lot of valid points on why the saturation point is difficult to know and I have to agree I have 3 phones myself 2 personal & 1 from the County. So I am counted 3 times since they are all from different companies.

[bobolito]

Even if they were from the same carrier, you would still be counted as 3 customers because you're using three lines.

[RJB]

I wonder what age group carry that most