Q4 2005 and full year 2005 results

[Matt]

No, nothing to report yet, but I thought I'd give us a thread to use. T-Mobile will report subscriber figures on January 26, but full financials won't be out until March 2 or March 14.

[larry]

It will be interesting to see what Sprint & Nextel did together since this will be the first full quarter of customer additions since the merger was complete.

[bobolito]

March 2nd? That sounds like later than ever before. I thought T-Mo usually reports 1.5 months later. This time two months?

[Matt]

Originally Posted by bobolito March 2nd? That sounds like later than ever before. I thought T-Mo usually reports 1.5 months later. This time two months?

It is always late for the annual report, not as bad for the quarterlies. I actually think it will be the 14th (the DT website wasn't clear) since the last day to file annual reports with the SEC is 3/15.

[danny boi]

Originally Posted by larry It will be interesting to see what Sprint & Nextel did together since this will be the first full quarter of customer additions since the merger was complete.

We've performed many port outs (mainly on the Nextel side). I don't have any VZW or T-Mobile data, but initial sources look mediocre for both Sprint and Cingular unfortunately.

We aren't told the exact #'s any sooner than the public finds out, but we see general patterns of increased or decreased activity within our activation portals.

I hired an ex director of Sprint's Customer Care Dept. from Kansas City last Friday. She advised me that the holiday season was slower than hoped for but again there is no specific data to support either of our assumptions so things can be better or worse than we expect.

After hearing Radio Shack's #'s, the prospect doesn't look like it will be the biggest quarter for most of the national carriers.

[larry]

Originally Posted by YourDaddy We've performed many port outs (mainly on the Nextel side). I don't have any VZW or T-Mobile data, but initial sources look mediocre for both Sprint and Cingular unfortunately. We aren't told the exact #'s any sooner than the public finds out, but we see general patterns of increased or decreased activity within our activation portals. I hired an ex director of Sprint's Customer Care Dept. from Kansas City last Friday. She advised me that the holiday season was slower than hoped for but again there is no specific data to support either of our assumptions so things can be better or worse than we expect. After hearing Radio Shack's #'s, the prospect doesn't look like it will be the biggest quarter for most of the national carriers.

I'm not worried. I think they'll have pretty good numbers when the affiliates, nextel partners, etc. are included.

[danny boi]

Originally Posted by larry I'm not worried. I think they'll have pretty good numbers when the affiliates, nextel partners, etc. are included.

You'd be worried if they didn't? You must be a heavy investor in NYSE: "S."
For your sake, let's hope so. I don't own much "S" stock but nonetheless would prefer all of mine to perform well.

[jones]

Originally Posted by YourDaddy You'd be worried if they didn't? You must be a heavy investor in NYSE: "S." For your sake, let's hope so. I don't own much "S" stock but nonetheless would prefer all of mine to perform well.

VZW No matter How good it performs:
45% will go to Vodafone, 55% VZ.
Cingular bad or good:
60% att, 40% BellSouth.

[bobolito]

I've been seeing lots of Nextel port outs recently around the circle of people I know.

- A small company which I have some connections with is porting its Nextels to Cingular due to PTT. They're loving the better coverage and handsets.

- One department at my job is researching an alternative to Nextel due to poor coverage. They're most likely going with Cingular not only because of PTT, but also because a large number of employees already have Cingular (myself included) and we would love to use M2M with more people.

- A large portion of my relatives and friends in RI that were with Nextel are now with T-Mobile. One of my cousins now claims better handsets with better battery life, better coverage and better PRICES!

- A friend of mine who was in a Nextel group with his family has now ported all his lines to Cingular. He loves the coverage and the black RAZR. He keeps saying all the places his Nextel phone never worked and now he has much better coverage. He is convincing his father to do the same.

Now, this is nothing against Nextel, so this is not bashing. This is either coincidence that they are all known to me, or statistically this is what's happening to Nextel in general. I don't know.

[walkguru]

well here in oklahoma, after we lost ATT, and all thier towers, most people i know have switched to cingular. so a lot, almost all of my calls are now m2m.

of course we dont have verision, but its comming i think. might be interesting.

[WiggyFife]

Originally Posted by walkguru well here in oklahoma, after we lost ATT, and all thier towers, most people i know have switched to cingular. so a lot, almost all of my calls are now m2m. of course we dont have verision, but its comming i think. might be interesting.

It sounds like we might have another convert... ain't that right, WG???

[walkguru]

Originally Posted by WiggyFife It sounds like we might have another convert... ain't that right, WG???

yeah right, in your dreams, wiggy,

[WiggyFife]

Originally Posted by walkguru yeah right, in your dreams, wiggy,

Just checking!!!

[walkguru]

Originally Posted by WiggyFife Just checking!!!

its ok to check, you never know, but right now im verry happy, with gsm.

[larry]

Originally Posted by bobolito I've been seeing lots of Nextel port outs recently around the circle of people I know. - A small company which I have some connections with is porting its Nextels to Cingular due to PTT. They're loving the better coverage and handsets. - One department at my job is researching an alternative to Nextel due to poor coverage. They're most likely going with Cingular not only because of PTT, but also because a large number of employees already have Cingular (myself included) and we would love to use M2M with more people. - A large portion of my relatives and friends in RI that were with Nextel are now with T-Mobile. One of my cousins now claims better handsets with better battery life, better coverage and better PRICES! - A friend of mine who was in a Nextel group with his family has now ported all his lines to Cingular. He loves the coverage and the black RAZR. He keeps saying all the places his Nextel phone never worked and now he has much better coverage. He is convincing his father to do the same. Now, this is nothing against Nextel, so this is not bashing. This is either coincidence that they are all known to me, or statistically this is what's happening to Nextel in general. I don't know.

]

Ah come on bobolito. We all know Nextel always does consistently well for their size with at least 400K-600K per quarter. I don't think it will be any different this time. The combined total for the two should approach 1 million.

[jones]

Originally Posted by walkguru of course we dont have verision, but its comming i think. might be interesting.

VZW just can't jump there,
VZ has to get Vodafone's approval.

[bobolito]

Originally Posted by larry ] Ah come on bobolito. We all know Nextel always does consistently well for their size with at least 400K-600K per quarter. I don't think it will be any different this time. The combined total for the two should approach 1 million.

Yeah, I would say Nextel always did very consistent, but not well. My definition of consistent and well goes more with the way T-Mobile is doing. They are the fastest growing carrier after Verizon. Don't forget Nextel alone is just about the same size as T-Mobile if that means anything.

Before the merger Sprint alone was doing about a million (including affiliates), and Nextel with Boost adding about 800,000. So if we add both Sprint + their affiliates + Nextel + Boost, don't you think they would add up over 1.5M net?.... No, I don't think so either. For some reason the Sprint side has slowed down. Therefore, like you said, they should approach about 1 million. I don't know why they have slowed down.

If you ask me, I think Sprint is not focusing too much on retail sales and the consumer market. Maybe that's what they want. They appear to be more interested in the MVNO business and partnerships.

[walkguru]

Wirelessly posted (Walkguru's: Nokia6682/2.0 (3.01.1) SymbianOS/8.0 Series60/2.6 Profile/MIDP-2.0 Configuration/CLDC-1.1 UP.Link/6.3.0.0.0)

Originally Posted by jones Originally Posted by walkguru of course we dont have verision, but its comming i think. might be interesting. VZW just can't jump there, VZ has to get Vodafone's approval.

Ah i did not know that.

[bobolito]

Originally Posted by jones VZW just can't jump there, VZ has to get Vodafone's approval.

...and you know that's not a problem at all.

[larry]

Originally Posted by bobolito Yeah, I would say Nextel always did very consistent, but not well. My definition of consistent and well goes more with the way T-Mobile is doing. They are the fastest growing carrier after Verizon. Don't forget Nextel alone is just about the same size as T-Mobile if that means anything. Before the merger Sprint alone was doing about a million (including affiliates), and Nextel with Boost adding about 800,000. So if we add both Sprint + their affiliates + Nextel + Boost, don't you think they would add up over 1.5M net?.... No, I don't think so either. For some reason the Sprint side has slowed down. Therefore, like you said, they should approach about 1 million. I don't know why they have slowed down. If you ask me, I think Sprint is not focusing too much on retail sales and the consumer market. Maybe that's what they want. They appear to be more interested in the MVNO business and partnerships.

Sprint had slowed down way before the nextel merger was complete. But they're ARPU is still way above the other carriers and their churn is lower than t-Mobile. The MVNO business is something that they seem to pursue very well.

[danny boi]

Sprint's saving grace is all the other companies they add to their own subscriber numbers. Our company will start to add to these numbers in a much larger way too hopefully by the 2nd or 3rd Quarter of this year when we go national.

With the help of Boost and Virgin, they may hit 1.4 million new adds but direct sales seem to remain weak.

If I worked for Sprint-Nextel, I would actively seek ways to promote organic growth and improve customer-employee relations.

[larry]

When you're targeting high ARPU it's tough to attract as many customers as a carrier who aims for a much lower ARPU.

[jones]

Originally Posted by bobolito ...and you know that's not a problem at all.

VZW and Vodafone had many published Rift.

[ctk74]

What are you talking about?? Please explain. VOD is in NO negotiating position with regards to VZW. Remember VOD only owns 45% so they are a minority owner. All they can do is sit back and collect the profits and HOPE that VZ will offer them a large chunk of cash for full ownership of VZW. VZ will NEVER go GSM and the only way Vodafone will have full control of a U.S. mobile operation is if they do a MVNO or buy T-Mobile. I don't know anyone who thinks this is feasable. Either move would require VOD to divest their 45% stake due to no compete clauses.

[ctk74]

Dobson's ARPU up, but carrier continues to leak subscribers
By Kelly Hill
Jan 12, 2006
OKLAHOMA CITY-The fourth quarter of 2005 brought continuing net customer losses but higher annual revenue per user for Dobson Communications Corp, according to preliminary figures released by the company.
Dobson said it lost about 22,500 total customers during the final three months of last year; the carrier said the decline on the postpaid side was roughly 28,000. The numbers are better than Dobson's year-ago quarter, when 25,600 net subscribers dropped Dobson and 33,100 of its postpaid customers took off.


Dobson said that its postpaid customer churn rate was about 2.62 percent, compared with 2.35 percent for the same quarter in 2004. However, the churn rate was better than some analysts had expected, considering the 2.82 percent churn Dobson reported for the third quarter of 2005.

The company's ARPU bounced up to $46.10 from last year's $42.17, and with about 67 percent of the carrier's 1.5 million customers now on GSM calling plans, roaming minutes of use hit 584 million for the 2005 fourth quarter. That figure reflects a 46-percent increase over (pro forma) MOUs for the fourth quarter of 2004 of 399 million.

Dobson said it expects roaming yield of about 10.8 cents per minute for the fourth quarter, in line with its predictions.

Dobson, which owns wireless operations in 16 states, said it plans to report official fourth quarter figures in late February

[Andy]

Sorry if this is a dumb question, but could someone please clarify this line for me, out of the Dobson reports posted above:
"Dobson said it expects roaming yield of about 10.8 cents per minute for the fourth quarter, in line with its predictions."

[jones]

Originally Posted by ctk74 VZ will NEVER go GSM and the only way Vodafone will have full control of a U.S. mobile operation is if they do a MVNO or buy T-Mobile.

But Vodafone wants to go WCDMA,
and this is where their RIFT w/ VZ starts.

[COtech]

Originally Posted by Andy84094 Sorry if this is a dumb question, but could someone please clarify this line for me, out of the Dobson reports posted above: "Dobson said it expects roaming yield of about 10.8 cents per minute for the fourth quarter, in line with its predictions."

Charges to the roamer's carrier minus Dobson's costs equals yield.

COtech

[Matt]

Alltel reported this morning:

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/060120/20060120005191.html?.v=1

Q4 Highlights:

Total wireless ARPU was $52.13, a 6 percent increase year-over-year. Post-pay churn companywide was 1.83 percent. Within Alltel's heritage markets, ARPU was $50.54, a 3 percent increase. Post-pay churn in the heritage markets was 1.73 percent.

The company added 147,000 net new wireless customers. Within the heritage markets, Alltel added 166,000 customers, including 76,000 post-paid and 90,000 pre-paid. Alltel added 18,000 net customers in the former Western Wireless markets. The company lost 37,000 customers in the former Cingular markets.

2005 Full year highlights:

# Total wireless ARPU was $51.44, a 7 percent increase. Post-pay churn companywide was 1.8 percent. ARPU in Alltel's heritage markets was $50.42, a 5 percent increase. Post-pay churn in those markets was 1.7 percent.
# Wireline revenues were $2.4 billion, down 2 percent. Segment income was $904 million, also down 2 percent. The company added 154,000 broadband customers, a 71 percent increase that brings its broadband customer base to 398,000. Wireline average revenue per customers was $67.21, a 2 percent increase. Feature revenue per eligible line increased 5 percent.

[Matt]

Suncom hid their results in their SEC filing

http://biz.yahoo.com/e/060119/tpc8-k.html

During the fourth quarter of 2005, SunCom recorded lower average revenues per subscriber (ARPU) due primarily to lingering retention credits associated with handset migrations and rate plan mix shifts. The Company also had higher subscriber acquisition expenses, which reflected the higher than anticipated gross additions in the quarter. In addition, the Company experienced higher off-network roaming expenses, greater customer retention spending and increased bad debt expenses than expected for the fourth quarter. Subscribers at year-end totaled 965,822, which reflects net additions of 43,216 for the year and a subscriber churn rate of 3.2%. The ending subscriber balance reflects the sale of 29,139 enterprise subscribers to Cingular in the third quarter of 2005. Fourth quarter 2005 gross additions were 123,333, with 46,272 net customer additions. Subscriber churn in the fourth quarter was 2.7%.