WCDMA & CDMA2000 Equipment up, GSM equipment sales down

[Fire14]

W-CDMA and CDMA2000 infrastructure markets up, GSM down

As service providers around the globe install and upgrade networks to handle the growing number of mobile subscribers, demand for radio access network (RAN) equipment also climbs, with overall unit shipments up 8% in 2006, says Infonetics Research in its latest report.

However, overall RAN revenue is down for the year, due to a 14% drop in the massive GSM equipment market in 2006, evidence that more providers are choosing to replace their aging 2G GSM networks with faster W-CDMA and CDMA/CDMA2000 3G networks that can accommodate more subscribers.

RAN equipment manufacturers will also face pricing pressure in coming years, with the average price per unit for GSM, W-CDMA, and CDMA/CDMA2000 coming down significantly by 2010.

"GSM has held up amazingly well so far considering the number of carriers migrating away from it. GSM is a fast, cheap, mature technology suitable for emerging markets, so we're still seeing new GSM rollouts in emerging countries in Asia, Africa, and South America that do not have ad hoc PSTN infrastructure. Unlike with W-CDMA upgrades, which require a new core network, recouping the cost of a GSM network is pretty much guaranteed," said Richard Webb, directing analyst at Infonetics Research.

"Still, GSM equipment revenue will decline rapidly through 2010, while W-CDMA and CDMA/CDMA2000 revenue will grow, because carriers are pushing to deliver higher speed data, multimedia, video, and mobile TV services over 3G networks in competitive developed markets," Webb added.

Market Highlights


Worldwide RAN equipment revenue dipped 2% to just over $10.0 billion in 4Q06, and is down 2% to $41.6 billion in 2006

Overall base transceiver station (BTS) revenue is up 14% in 2006; base station controller (BSC) revenue is down considerably
Worldwide W-CDMA equipment revenue is up 41% and CDMA/CDMA2000 equipment revenue is up 7% in 2006
The number of mobile subscribers grew 26% to 2.5 billion in 2006, and is forecast to grow to almost 3.6 billion in 2010
Asia Pacific accounts for 47% of worldwide mobile subscribers
Asia Pacific accounts for 38% of worldwide RAN equipment revenue in 2006, EMEA 29%, North America 17%, and CALA 16%
Ericsson, Alcatel-Lucent, Nokia, and Siemens together account for over 70% of the worldwide RAN equipment market in 2006



www.cellular-news.com/story/22581.php

[RadioFoneGuy]

Technology today is easily updated over the older techs like TDMA,CDMA (1st GEN) and Analog. In the old days you had to change out your hole core switching system and all the base stations just to stay competitive. With GSM and CDMA you can go to the Cell Site and replace cards or radios and changes some cards in the switch and your off and running. This is alot easier than the old days of finding a new platform then running dual systems then migrating customers from one to the other.

Basically what Im getting at is sales are going to drop off because once a carrier has the core platform (GSM/CDMA2000) it doesnt need to redo its whole network everyfew years. So the only real big buyer of GSM/CDMA core systems are smaller companies converting from TDMA/CDMA/Analog.

A good example of upgrading a 2G to 3G is like what we have done. We have some GSM thats been in place since 1998. 1st Gen GSM is nothing more than enhanced TDMA. 1st Gen GSM could only hold 8 calls per radio and had no data capabilities other than text messaging. We took those systems and replaced the radios and took the system up to EDGE data and up to 32 calls per radio.

Another Misconception in GSM is UMTS (WCDMA) Alot of people associate WCDMA with the Technology CDMA and assume that the GSM carrier is going to remove GSM and replace with CDMA which is not true. CDMA the platform itself is superior with the way it transport data over the way GSM operates, this is not new news. GSM is taking from CDMA its interprepation of the technolgy which is WCDMA and adapting it for use in a GSM environment. When a customer makes a call it will still be over GSM technolgy, but when you use data it will use the WCDMA (UMTS).

The new UMTS equipment is backward compatable with GPRS and EDGE and the radios for voice are still GSM. These new systems all use the same existing Switching system and backhaul architecture.

Sorry for the book, look at the link below its to Nortels website on their UMTS the equipment is still GSM with the UMTS interface built in.

http://www.nortel.com/solutions/wire...0.08-23-04.pdf

[jones]

Originally Posted by Cellonetech

Another Misconception in GSM is UMTS (WCDMA) Alot of people associate WCDMA with the Technology CDMA and assume that the GSM carrier is going to remove GSM and replace with CDMA which is not true. CDMA the platform itself is superior with the way it transport data over the way GSM operates, this is not new news. GSM is taking from CDMA its interprepation of the technolgy which is WCDMA and adapting it for use in a GSM environment. When a customer makes a call it will still be over GSM technolgy, but when you use data it will use the WCDMA (UMTS).

http://www.nortel.com/solutions/wire...0.08-23-04.pdf

Agreed, WCDMA and CDMA2000 are Never Compatible.

[strunke]

Originally Posted by jones

Agreed, WCDMA and CDMA2000 are Never Compatible.

Haha, okay. Although that isn't quite what he was saying.....

[Fire14]

Thanks for the detailed explination Cellonetech, it makes more sense when put into that perspective on the equipement end.
As for the WCDMA I have read they weren't really the same, but I think I have a better understanding why now. Of course I don't have the technical background that some do here & it's good to get things in plain english once in a while, along with the technical terms.

[RadioFoneGuy]

Yah WCDMA and CDMA really are not the same. I noted above that WCDMA is an interprepation of CDMA(2000) and sort of adapted if you will to GSM need for a better Data transport system. This is good news for all of us with the technology inter-mingling. Im so tired of technology bashing, CDMA is better or GSM is better blah blah. There are so many mis-conceptions of both that I could rant for days. I have worked with both systems from 1st gen GSM and CDMA all the way to GSM (EDGE) and CDMA1x. I did alot of contracting to different companies and was blessed to work with both.

Im in it for the technology and working in a field that I enjoy.

[hillbilly44]

Cellonetech you are incorrect about this part of your quote" When a customer makes a call it will still be over GSM technolgy, but when you use data it will use the WCDMA (UMTS).

The new UMTS equipment is backward compatable with GPRS and EDGE and the radios for voice are still GSM. These new systems all use the same existing Switching system and backhaul architecture.

Sorry for the book, look at the link below its to Nortels website on their UMTS the equipment is still GSM with the UMTS interface built in.

A WCDMA (UMTS/HSDPA) network is not using the same Switching system. It may be called a MSC but it's nothing like the 2G MSC that it replaces in a UMTS network. Also the voice is not carried over the GSM network only E911 calls. It's a completely new network. I'm very famililar with the Nortel website (I did my RF Engineering training with them) but WCDMA networks handle both Voice & data at the same time. That's the reason it uses a 5Mhz wide channel (hense Wide Band CDMA).

[RadioFoneGuy]

Look at Nortels S18000 cabinet, it can work back to back with our existing S12000 Edge cabinets in series thru the existing MSC. We just had a training session with Nortel and we are getting ready to run UMTS trial this spring.
The UMTS will be piped thru our existing switch. The existing S12000 will handle GSM calls and the UMTS expansion bay can run 2 CDMA carriers for data. The switch we have is a 2.5G+ switch. Somewhere the wires are crossed on this info.

[RadioFoneGuy]

I have read thru my documents and in a way we are both correct. A straight WCDMA network from scratch would have all new equipment. As most of the bigger carriers have already done is integrate GSM and WCDMA on the existing switching backbone. GSM is going to be around along time, especially in the rural areas. Eventually everything will be WCMA evolved or HSDPA, Wimax or whatever comes next. Due to the specrum gobbling WCDMA alot of GSM carriers wont be able to pull off WCDMA. My company will be running dual GSM/WCDMA sites on the same tower thru the same MSC. RNC will have to be added to the backbone to handle the WCDMA voice and data. Below is a link to Ericssons website which explains the concept pretty well of running both systems.


http://www.ericsson.com/technology/w..._network_c.pdf

[RadioFoneGuy]

Heres another good link that explains the technology.

http://www.ericsson.com/technology/w...aper_ny_k1.pdf

[hillbilly44]

Originally Posted by Cellonetech

I have read thru my documents and in a way we are both correct. A straight WCDMA network from scratch would have all new equipment. As most of the bigger carriers have already done is integrate GSM and WCDMA on the existing switching backbone. GSM is going to be around along time, especially in the rural areas. Eventually everything will be WCMA evolved or HSDPA, Wimax or whatever comes next. Due to the specrum gobbling WCDMA alot of GSM carriers wont be able to pull off WCDMA. My company will be running dual GSM/WCDMA sites on the same tower thru the same MSC. RNC will have to be added to the backbone to handle the WCDMA voice and data. Below is a link to Ericssons website which explains the concept pretty well of running both systems.


http://www.ericsson.com/technology/w..._network_c.pdf

Cingular didn't do it that way, I know I was involved in the UMTS overlay. There is a 3G MSC (Nortel) and 2G MSC. I've seen the whitepapers before but that's not how I've seen it installed anywhere in the world. There are 2 different systems. Voice & Data are both on the UMTS network with an IRAT handover to the GSM/EDGE network. The Nortel information you're quoting is outdated anyway. That's the way the only functioning UMTS/HSDPA network in the US works.

[RadioFoneGuy]

Thats good insight. Thats where I get alot of my info is from friends I used to do contract work with. Cingular has the money to go that route. Dobson is approx 2 years behind what Cingular/ATT does. From all the manufactures that I have seen info on, all claim to be able to run UMTS on our existing GSM switch. This is the route that make the most logical sense for a rural carrier.

I miss being in the contracting world sometimes. I worked on ATT wireless GSM overlay back in 2001. I even build 2 Nortel TDMA sites with them. I would have loved to get my hands on the UMTS build out.

Good info the info I have seen can be confusing.

[hillbilly44]

Cellonetech;

There is no way you can run a UMTS/HSDPA system on a 2G MSC. A 3G MSC is basically a glorified router anyway, so it's not a switch in the traditional sense. The RNC & Node B do most of the work. When Siemens tried to do that with an Alcatel 2G MSC it was a disaster (wouldn't route the traffic properly along with other things). Nortel also found this out and that's one of the reasons alot of carriers are using their 3G MSC right now (also they sold their UMTS business to Alcatel-Lucent).

[RadioFoneGuy]

when you say 2G i am thinking TDMA/CDMA 1 or GSM 1 (non data version)
When our switch was put in it came online as a 2.5G. Supposedly Nortel told Dobson these switches would still be usable thru upgrades to 3G. Do you think we will have the same problems. Is Cingular running a 1 for 1 3G to 2G switch ratio?

I know Cingular had Nortel and Nokia from the old ATTWS, so are they running Nortel UMTS base stations, RNC and MSC? What are they using for specrum, I have read 1900 and 2100. Are they able to use 850 at all? Was the WCDMA able to compensate for CDMA's major weakness of Cell shrinkage based on calls.

Thanks for the info most of my knowledge is dated and based on rumors that Nortel has told us and the tons of hours I have researching this topic. Freq planning must be a pain with a 5 mhz spread.

Keep the knowledge coming.

[hillbilly44]

Cellonetech, The Nortel 3G MSC is not anything like a 2 or 2.5G MSC. As I stated previously it's basically a big router. Cingular is using Ericsson & Lucent for it's UMTS equipment. Also, Cingular had at one time Nortel, Ericsson, Siemens & Nokia as the 2G (GSM/EDGE) equipment providers. The Spectrum used is both 1900 and 850Mhz and is based on what spectrum they have licensed. It's not that bad to clear spectrum since most of the 1900 TDMA has been turned off. Hope this helps.

[RadioFoneGuy]

I figured they would use 1900 and 850. We have Lucent TDMA, Nortel GSM, Motorola CDMA and a little known company called Airnet with a big mixture of specrum. We have 850 A band, alot of C,F and bits in between on 1900. Our 2G switchs are huge with the 5ESS/ATM and the BSC's and DACS how big is this 3G switch/router? When you say Lucent, you mean what you said earlier about Nortel giving Alcatel/Lucent their UMTS division?

AT&T using Lucent its kinda funny if you know the history of Lucent.

Most of our TDMA says Lucent on the front, some says AT&T, HMM. It only took 23 years to put MA Bell back together.

Thanks for the info, it gives me a better grasp of things to come. You can only get so much from Manufactures Whitepaper and corporate speculation.

This industry has changed so much since I started working on Analog. I remember AT&T (ATTWS) talking about UMTS back in 2001 when we put in the GSM.