number portability clarification?

[cbass2781]

Hey, I know number portability is a big deal, and I've been reading a lot about how people are going to line up around the block at cell phone stores to change providers (not literally), but should we really be expecting that much of a difference? As far as I know, all 1 and 2 yr service agreements are still unaffected, right? Now, if those are all void come Nov. 24th, then I can understand the buzz. But if it just comes down to your phone number... I understand that keeping your old number is a great convenience. But did that really prevent people from switching providers when their service was crappy? (before the idea of number portability) And besides that, will all these people stuck in contracts be willing to pay the cancellation fees just so they can jump providers as soon as this law takes effect? I thought the majority of people just switched carriers if they were unhappy with service at the end of their contracts anyway--I don't see any reason why number portability would change that very much (although I know it would definitely have some kind of effect).

Maybe I'm missing some major detail here. What do y'all think?

[BSJ723]

Number portability will not void existing contracts. I am not sure how much of a big deal it is going to be for your average Joe wireless subscriber. I can see a benefit to those who use their wireless phone for their business and want to switch companies for better plans and maybe better coverage but already have their number listed in the yellow pages and on business cards.

[Rebguy2]

I agree, I don't see portability being that much of an issue for regular consumers, but I know a lot of people on this board and elsewhere disagree with me! [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-wink.gif[/img] I can see why this would be important for businesses, however. For the average consumer, I would think the red tape and the fact that you would lose the benefit of a trial period with the new carrier while keeping your old service would outweigh any benefits of keeping your number, but then again, I could be wrong! Yes, if you port your number before your contract ends with the old carrier, you would be responsible for any early termination fee (as well as any other charges owed to the old carrier, all financial obligations with the old carrier have to be satisfied before the number is ported). I have heard rumors that some carriers may pay the ETF for customers wanting to port their numbers, but I haven't seen anything concrete yet; although admittedly I haven't looked very hard for it. I would imagine there would be some sort of stipulation if they do this, such as having to pay back the ETF from the old carrier along with the ETF from the new carrier if they cancel service within a certain period of time, the carriers would be taking a big risk if they didn't do something like that.

[A999]

I don't see the big deal either but it is estimated that 30 million people would change carriers in the first 6 months after WLNP. I wonder if some folks are confusing number portability with contracts being voided similar to what was said earlier??? I doubt that many will change but if they do there will be a big increase in churn and you can expect a lot of mergers and acquisisitions as some companies just can't financially stand a large jump in churn.

[BillRadio]

This article quotes a study that 29% of all wireless users will change carriers as a result of number portability, that is 42 MILLION users. This has the potential of being huge. The only reason there won't be people lining up around the block is that they will wait until their contract expires, stretching this potential phenomenon out over up to two years.

The big gainers, they claim, will be Verizon and T-Mobile. The big losers will be AT&T and Sprint.

At least a half dozen of my co-workers are leaving AT&T this year, almost all are going to Sprint.

My "Number" is an "888" number and is fully portable.

-Bill

[Matt]

29% isn't all that much higher than the average churn rate. A churn rate of 2%, which is a monthly figure, works out to 24% of users who change carriers now, before WLNP. Only Verizon's churn is under 2% AFAIK.

[Rebguy2]

That makes a lot more sense, a 5% rise in churn could be attributed mostly to business users who have been staying with a carrier just because they couldn't port their number. I haven't heard a whole lot about Nextel, I believe business users constitute a higher percentage of their customer base than any other carrier. Of course, where Nextel works, it tends to work well, so I wouldn't anticipate a major exodus from them to any other carrier. Statistics and polls can only give an educated guess as to what will happen, and numbers can be misleading. As far as mergers and aquisitions go, there have been discussions on this board about this for as long as the board has been up from the looks of it. I know that it is possible, but if all the speculations had come true up to this point, we'd only have two major carriers today. They've all stood up to some pretty tough times in the past, and I think the major carriers will weather this as well. I suppose we'll all have to wait for the quarter results to come out in January to see just how it all ends up playing out.

[GetUSC]

Originally posted by: Matt
Only Verizon's churn is under 2% AFAIK.

US Cellulars combined post/prepaid churn is 1.5%
Post - 1.4%
Pre - 1.7%

[Matt]

OK, I stand corrected. I was referring to the 6 national carriers, but I should have stated that. Thanks.

[bobolito]

Nextel's churn is 1.7%

[bobolito]

Originally posted by: BillRadio
This article quotes a study that 29% of all wireless users will change carriers as a result of number portability, that is 42 MILLION users. This has the potential of being huge. The only reason there won't be people lining up around the block is that they will wait until their contract expires, stretching this potential phenomenon out over up to two years.

The big gainers, they claim, will be Verizon and T-Mobile. The big losers will be AT&T and Sprint.

At least a half dozen of my co-workers are leaving AT&T this year, almost all are going to Sprint.

My "Number" is an "888" number and is fully portable.

-Bill

Don't forget that much of that 42 MILLION people is under contract so it's not like they will all rush to change carriers on November 24th at the same time. This will happen slowly over at least 12 months or more.

[bobolito]

Someone please delete this....

Website error caused duplicate post.

[BSJ723]

I could see a rush of customers porting on or shortly after Nov. 24th. Looking at some of the threads here, there are some who are waiting for that day as if it were Chirstmas morning. There will also be those who will make the change no matter what their contract status is. Then I see a slowdown as those who are still in contract wait for the right time to do so. There might also be a slowdown as there will more than likely be horror stories coming from a few of the first to port number b/c there are bound to be the occasional technical problems or glitches that happen when new systems are implemented. Word of mouth does hold a good deal of power.



The penny on my left and the penny on my right is all that I can offer