iPhone hype and my concerns

[nKrypteD1]

As of recent AT&T has been pushing the iPhone hard, matter of fact I think this phone has received more direct marketing than any other phone in history. But out of all the things I have seen some issues arise for me that I want to share that way if someone is sitting on the fence in regards to this phone they at least know of some of the negative things that this "phone" will offer.

First of all, the iPhone contains no numeric keypad, nor any other method of entering information into the phone aside from the touchscreen. To me this is a very bad idea, I've used PDA's with touchscreens for over 3 years now and trust me they are fragile. First of all, if the alignment of the screenment comes off, have fun getting to whatever method that apple has installed for alignment, secondly everyone who has dropped a phone can tell you the first thing to go is the screen. That being said, the main reason PDA users replace their PDA's is screen damage of another nature, scratches. Anything that's carried in the pocket will scratch sooner or later which, even with soft finger entry, will disturb entry into the phone, secondly it can mess up what you can see. Screen aside let's move on.

The iPhone, like the iPod, is a enclosed design, ie. the battery is not interchangeable. For anyone not familiar with general battery reality, you can only charge a battery so and so much before it starts to lose capacity (the chemicals inside start to break down.) As such, if your battery stops working inside the Warranty period, you'll be without a phone while it's being repaired. The usual life cycle of an iPod is a little over a year (battery wise) depending on useage, considering this is a phone you'll be charging and discharging on a daily basis, so I would estimate that to be a good hypothetical lifetime for the iPhone batter. So chances are that your battery will begin malfunctioning just out of the 1 year warranty period, generally that's going to be a little under a $150 dollar repair to replace the battery, not to mention the downtime. For more information on the iPod's battery issue please see iPod and iPhone Battery FAQ

Lastly my concerns stem in features, functionality, and hype such as the statement the iPhone is a "revolutionary" phone which is simply not true. Most of the iPhone's features are available in a "not so flashy" manner on current WM5 & 6 devices, as windows mobile is targetted at the business consumer rather than the average joe who just wants to play music on his phone. As far as functionality is concerned we know for fact that MMS is not supported in the current iPhone, furthermore, there are suspected bugs and security flaws with the iPhone already being rumored. Keep in mind that this is the first in a long series of releases for iPhone, in otherwords it's an unproven platform and with the rush to get the iPhone's to stores, I forsee many issues that apple hasn't even though of arising. Now to my last major concern, in order to buy an iPhone through AT&T you will HAVE TO sign a 2 year contract or extend your current contract, this wouldn't be so bad where it not for the fact that the iPhone is being sold unsubsidized, ie the end user will eat the full cost of the phone. This is bad considering when you purchase your Razr or Blackjack, a good deal of the cost (usually around $100 or more) is "eaten" by AT&T in subsidation, that's the whole selling point to get people to sign contracts instead of going month to month. This also means you'll be locked in for 2 years on a phone that is 1. unproven, 2. has a incomplete feature set, and 3. doesn't support the latest technologies. iPhone only supports EDGE, which by definition is more than slightly out of date for a phone that in the "cheap version" costs $500 + tax and activation, to all of you thinking about the iPhone I would strongly suggest waiting a few months, seeing what happens with the current iPhone and then get the next version which is already rumored and will most likely contain 3G support.

I'm sure I'll get both praise and ridicule for this comment as the iPhone touches on the OS war between Mac and MS, since we're all Mac haters or lovers to some degree. Just keep in mind I wrote this as a way to counterbalance the hype and to share my opinion for the, perhaps uninformed, consumer.

[scotsboyuk]

I'm firmly of the view that the iPhone is a mediocre handset dressed up in her mother's best dress and brazenly parading herself up and down the street pretending to be Grace Kelly. I think there is far too much hype surrounding the iPhone, it is a nice handset by the looks of it, I don't seek to claim otherwise. However, it is not a revolutionary handset, it is not a great handset and it isn't even the best handset of the moment. It has a nice UI granted, but apart from that I can't see that it offers anything that would make one's lips part let alone prompt one's jaw to move.

Having said all that I think it will do well, the hype will see to that. What I shall be looking at is how the iPhone does over the long term. How do people react to it once they have used it for a few months? How does it sit once a year has passed and people are perhaps casting an eye towards the latest and greatest?

[bobolito]

Originally Posted by scotsboyuk

I'm firmly of the view that the iPhone is a mediocre handset dressed up in her mother's best dress and brazenly parading herself up and down the street pretending to be Grace Kelly. I think there is far too much hype surrounding the iPhone, it is a nice handset by the looks of it, I don't seek to claim otherwise. However, it is not a revolutionary handset, it is not a great handset and it isn't even the best handset of the moment. It has a nice UI granted, but apart from that I can't see that it offers anything that would make one's lips part let alone prompt one's jaw to move.

Having said all that I think it will do well, the hype will see to that. What I shall be looking at is how the iPhone does over the long term. How do people react to it once they have used it for a few months? How does it sit once a year has passed and people are perhaps casting an eye towards the latest and greatest?

I think people's opinions on the iPhone are based on what they are looking for in a handset. If what you want is a great user interface, and that's your priority more than anything else, then the iPhone is a revolutionary device for you. But of all you think about is features and more features, then you're going to be deceived by the iPhone. People need to understand that the selling point of the iPhone is not its features, it's the user interface. If you are the geek tech type (the minority) looking for the most advanced features, 3G, a 5 megapixel camera, PTT, etc. then you'll have to look elsewhere. The iPhone is not marketed towards advanced, tech-type power users. It is for the average user, who Apple and AT&T understand is the majority of the population, who want an easy to use interface and want a "cool toy" they can brag about.

Apple has a lot of fans and many iPod users who have built up a massive market that will be excited to own an iPhone. We all know the iPod is not the best MP3 player out there. There are more advanced MP3 players in the market that are cheaper and can do more than the iPod, but the one that's selling the most is the iPod by a huge margin. So this is not about features, its about a great user interface and the "cool" factor. Companies like Apple have realized that being "cool" sells a lot.

[Mobile Mike]

Originally Posted by bobolito

I think people's opinions on the iPhone are based on what they are looking for in a handset. If what you want is a great user interface, and that's your priority more than anything else, then the iPhone is a revolutionary device for you. But of all you think about is features and more features, then you're going to be deceived by the iPhone. People need to understand that the selling point of the iPhone is not its features, it's the user interface. If you are the geek tech type (the minority) looking for the most advanced features, 3G, a 5 megapixel camera, PTT, etc. then you'll have to look elsewhere. The iPhone is not marketed towards advanced, tech-type power users. It is for the average user, who Apple and AT&T understand is the majority of the population, who want an easy to use interface and want a "cool toy" they can brag about.

Apple has a lot of fans and many iPod users who have built up a massive market that will be excited to own an iPhone. We all know the iPod is not the best MP3 player out there. There are more advanced MP3 players in the market that are cheaper and can do more than the iPod, but the one that's selling the most is the iPod by a huge margin. So this is not about features, its about a great user interface and the "cool" factor. Companies like Apple have realized that being "cool" sells a lot.

As an iPod fanatic, myself, I have no interest in the iPhone no matter how much Apple and AT&T tell me how revolutionary it is.

I have 16BG+ of music on my 4th gen iPod. Unless they come out with a (minimum) 20GB hard drive, a cost comparable to regular iPods, and the ability to use it openly with other GSM carriers, forget it. I don't see any of this happening anytime soon.

I, personally, am not willing to pay ETF's to any of my current carriers to spend another $500 or $600 on the iPhone and to become stuck with AT&T for two years. I am not on a contract with them and want to stay that way.

This phone will do well, I'm sure, but I wonder how long the honeymoon period will really last.

[scotsboyuk]

Originally Posted by bobolito

I think people's opinions on the iPhone are based on what they are looking for in a handset. If what you want is a great user interface, and that's your priority more than anything else, then the iPhone is a revolutionary device for you. But of all you think about is features and more features, then you're going to be deceived by the iPhone.

I agree with you, after all choosing a new handset is a rather subjective business. However, I think some people will also be looking at whether or not they are getting value for money, and personally I don't think the iPhone is value for money when one compares its price to its feature set.

People need to understand that the selling point of the iPhone is not its features, it's the user interface. If you are the geek tech type (the minority) looking for the most advanced features, 3G, a 5 megapixel camera, PTT, etc. then you'll have to look elsewhere. The iPhone is not marketed towards advanced, tech-type power users. It is for the average user, who Apple and AT&T understand is the majority of the population, who want an easy to use interface and want a "cool toy" they can brag about.

Again I agree with you, but I think it's important to note that whilst the iPhone will likely appeal to the average mobile customer more than the uber mobile geek, it isn't priced with the average customer in mind. I have no doubt some people will hang the expense and buy the iPhone, but it is most definitely not priced within the normal price bracket for a handset of its capabilities.

Apple has a lot of fans and many iPod users who have built up a massive market that will be excited to own an iPhone. We all know the iPod is not the best MP3 player out there. There are more advanced MP3 players in the market that are cheaper and can do more than the iPod, but the one that's selling the most is the iPod by a huge margin. So this is not about features, its about a great user interface and the "cool" factor. Companies like Apple have realized that being "cool" sells a lot.

I understand that, but I think Apple might have misjudged the mobile market. For one Apple's main market is the U.S. where its other products do well and where most of its fanbase likely resides. Unfortunately for Apple the largest and most important mobile markets are outside North America and hence out with its largest base of support.

The iPhone's 'cool factor' might run into more competition outside of North America, which means it will have to draw upon its features and other factors to appeal to customers. Its features aren't terrible, they're not great, but they're not awful, and in and of themselves they might be able to appeal to certain demographics. However, the price is going to have an impact if and when the 'cool factor' wears off or comes up against devices that are cooler.

[Alienware_51]

The first problem about the iPhone that popped up in my head, was what if the touch-screen is broke, then you're completely screwed and can't do anything at all with it.

Do you think the iPhone will have the Apple Care package, like they provide for their laptop's and iPods? Or do you think they are going to make a special insurance package for the phone?

[nKrypteD1]

Originally Posted by Alienware_51

The first problem about the iPhone that popped up in my head, was what if the touch-screen is broke, then you're completely screwed and can't do anything at all with it.

Do you think the iPhone will have the Apple Care package, like they provide for their laptop's and iPods? Or do you think they are going to make a special insurance package for the phone?

No telling, but there's no Insurance offering from AT&T, also there's no real support from Cingular, they're going to support the phone features, and apple will support the rest, which means your half half split over who to call.

[bobolito]

Originally Posted by scotsboyuk

I agree with you, after all choosing a new handset is a rather subjective business. However, I think some people will also be looking at whether or not they are getting value for money, and personally I don't think the iPhone is value for money when one compares its price to its feature set.



Again I agree with you, but I think it's important to note that whilst the iPhone will likely appeal to the average mobile customer more than the uber mobile geek, it isn't priced with the average customer in mind. I have no doubt some people will hang the expense and buy the iPhone, but it is most definitely not priced within the normal price bracket for a handset of its capabilities.



I understand that, but I think Apple might have misjudged the mobile market. For one Apple's main market is the U.S. where its other products do well and where most of its fanbase likely resides. Unfortunately for Apple the largest and most important mobile markets are outside North America and hence out with its largest base of support.

The iPhone's 'cool factor' might run into more competition outside of North America, which means it will have to draw upon its features and other factors to appeal to customers. Its features aren't terrible, they're not great, but they're not awful, and in and of themselves they might be able to appeal to certain demographics. However, the price is going to have an impact if and when the 'cool factor' wears off or comes up against devices that are cooler.

The price of the iPhone is steep. We all agree on that one. However, this is all about strategy. Remember when the RAZR came out? It was priced at $600 and the RAZR has less features than the iPhone. Now you can get a RAZR for free with the subsidies. All prices come down eventually. Companies maintain prices high initially on almost every product, well above what the product is worth. This way they get as much revenue as they can. Those who will get an iPhone at its initial price will be those who can afford it, so no sense in AT&T making it cheaper than that for those folks who are willing to pay that much. Once they cover that "high-end" segment of the population, then they move on to lower population segments by offering incentives, increasing the subsidy and lowering the base price. It's all about marketing and financial strategies and who gets served first. Naturally, the ones that can pay the most will get served first. If the price was lower than what it is, then demand will be higher, shortages will be worse, return rates will be faster (there will always be returns), and the final revenue will be lower.

Lowering the iPhone price will also depend on actual demand and manufacturing/supply capacity. Customer satisfaction can also push the balance one way or another. If the demand doesn't prove that good, you will start to see rebates and specials popping up real soon. You can count on that! But if we see shortages and sales are going great, you can bet that price will stay there for a while.

[elmo01]

Originally Posted by Alienware_51

The first problem about the iPhone that popped up in my head, was what if the touch-screen is broke, then you're completely screwed and can't do anything at all with it.

Do you think the iPhone will have the Apple Care package, like they provide for their laptop's and iPods? Or do you think they are going to make a special insurance package for the phone?

the touch screen is the weak link agreed... no insurance or warranty thru cingular... as of yet... the word is all with apple... and they aint talkin until the 29th ( release date)
stay tuned for updates...will post as they become available

[Fire14]

Knowing Apple, I don't see them putting the prices for these down a lot, even over time, like the others do.

Of course if sales are weak & they start realizing how things work in the wireless world vs music & computer world, they may have to admit they will have to lower them or come out with lower priced models.

[nKrypteD1]

Originally Posted by Fire14

Knowing Apple, I don't see them putting the prices for these down a lot, even over time, like the others do.

Of course if sales are weak & they start realizing how things work in the wireless world vs music & computer world, they may have to admit they will have to lower them or come out with lower priced models.

Apple is most definetly about price fixing, think about the PC vs. Mac war. PC's are manufactured by various companies all selling the same hardware for varying prices, apple on the other hand sells by itself or "partners" that all sell for the same price.

[TehJoE234797]

You guys should check out some of the video's on YouTube about the iPhone

[nKrypteD1]

Originally Posted by TehJoE234797

You guys should check out some of the video's on YouTube about the iPhone

I have which is why I decided to make this post, in one specific video one of the Apple execs taunting the iPhone as the most advanced communications device because you could do email with it and surf the web. That's what started it for me, no offense but most phones can do that, and if you compare the iPhone to a Smart Device such as the 8125/8525 then it just adds up to a bunch of flashy junk. I guess it's all about marketing though, the PDA phones are targeted at business consumers and the iPhone is targetted at high end consumers. Should be interesting what Microsoft comes up with for WM7 in 2008, I'm sure there will be some more enhancements to blow the iPhone out of the water.

[andy6432668]

As soon as AT&T finds out that the iphone is headed for the buz saw and does not sell as hoped you will see the price drop faster than a water fall.

[scotsboyuk]

Originally Posted by bobolito

The price of the iPhone is steep. We all agree on that one. However, this is all about strategy. Remember when the RAZR came out? It was priced at $600 and the RAZR has less features than the iPhone. Now you can get a RAZR for free with the subsidies. All prices come down eventually. Companies maintain prices high initially on almost every product, well above what the product is worth. This way they get as much revenue as they can.

That may have been the case in the U.S., but not everywhere else. $600 is approximately £300 and I don't recall the RAZR ever costing £300 here (except perhaps if you bought it SIM free). Most handsets here are either free or very cheap on contract.

I am interested to see how Apple prices the iPhone outside America. I think they may run into problems if they insist on such a high price and a contract to go with it, especially if the iPhone doesn't see some significant improvements in its feature set.

Those who will get an iPhone at its initial price will be those who can afford it, so no sense in AT&T making it cheaper than that for those folks who are willing to pay that much. Once they cover that "high-end" segment of the population, then they move on to lower population segments by offering incentives, increasing the subsidy and lowering the base price. It's all about marketing and financial strategies and who gets served first. Naturally, the ones that can pay the most will get served first. If the price was lower than what it is, then demand will be higher, shortages will be worse, return rates will be faster (there will always be returns), and the final revenue will be lower.

Whilst I generally agree with your analysis I wonder if the situation you describe might result in a problem for the iPhone. If the high initial price does put the iPhone out of reach for many people they may simply opt for a different handset rather than waiting for the iPhone to come down in price.

Lowering the iPhone price will also depend on actual demand and manufacturing/supply capacity. Customer satisfaction can also push the balance one way or another. If the demand doesn't prove that good, you will start to see rebates and specials popping up real soon. You can count on that! But if we see shortages and sales are going great, you can bet that price will stay there for a while.

I think this is probably the key issue; the feedback. It will be interesting to see how customers react to the iPhone once they have used it for a period of time. I think we can all agree that initial demand and sales will make the iPhone a hit, but I wonder about how well it will do in the long term. Not everyone will be disappointed, in fact most iPhone owners will probably be happy with their handset, but I am of the opinion that there will be at least a significant minority who form a negative view of the iPhone.

I think some people are going to look at the price tag and wonder why they aren't getting better features or why they aren't getting some features at all e.g. MMS.

[bobolito]

Originally Posted by scotsboyuk

Whilst I generally agree with your analysis I wonder if the situation you describe might result in a problem for the iPhone. If the high initial price does put the iPhone out of reach for many people they may simply opt for a different handset rather than waiting for the iPhone to come down in price.

Those will be the people that really need a phone. If you already have one and it is working fine, you can afford to wait until the price of what you want comes down.

....in fact most iPhone owners will probably be happy with their handset, but I am of the opinion that there will be at least a significant minority who form a negative view of the iPhone.

There will always be bashers/detractors that will find defects and problems that don't exist for other people, and you can bet those will be the loudest to complain. Then there's the "nitpickers" who will go beyond realistic expectations and start blasting the iPhone because it takes long to do some functions or because they are playing with it 24/7 and the battery didn't make it for the whole week, or because the ringtones don't sound like their 5.1 surround system or because they find it awkward where a certain button or port is located, or maybe because the screen is not bright enough for them while they are sunbathing at the beach, or maybe because they find the microphone picks up too much background noise while their TV set is blasting at full volume (DUH!). They'll also be the system abusers who will put the iPhone in their pocket and then accidentally bang it on some door, break the screen and then blame the iPhone on having a cheap screen. Then they'll get pissed because they got the warranty replacement denied and will end up blasting crap about Apple in all the forums because they failed to take responsibility for their own actions.

[scotsboyuk]

Originally Posted by bobolito

Those will be the people that really need a phone. If you already have one and it is working fine, you can afford to wait until the price of what you want comes down.

I don't agree. There is merit to what you say, but I think there will also be a good number of people who don't necessarily need a new handset, but who want one anyway. In fact most people probably don't need a new handset each year, but they likely get one anyway because they simply want something new.

There will always be bashers/detractors that will find defects and problems that don't exist for other people, and you can bet those will be the loudest to complain. Then there's the "nitpickers" who will go beyond realistic expectations and start blasting the iPhone because it takes long to do some functions or because they are playing with it 24/7 and the battery didn't make it for the whole week, or because the ringtones don't sound like their 5.1 surround system or because they find it awkward where a certain button or port is located, or maybe because the screen is not bright enough for them while they are sunbathing at the beach, or maybe because they find the microphone picks up too much background noise while their TV set is blasting at full volume (DUH!). They'll also be the system abusers who will put the iPhone in their pocket and then accidentally bang it on some door, break the screen and then blame the iPhone on having a cheap screen. Then they'll get pissed because they got the warranty replacement denied and will end up blasting crap about Apple in all the forums because they failed to take responsibility for their own actions.

Of course, some will nitpick, but I think there will also be a fair number who genuinely find fault with the iPhone once they have bought it. There is a great deal of hype surrounding the iPhone and I wonder whether it will actually heighten faults that would otherwise not be criticised to any great extent as well as highlighting faults that would.

There are genuine criticisms of the iPhone e.g. no 3G, mediocre camera, no memory expansion, non-removable battery, no MMS, etc. Of course not everyone will be bothered by these things, but one has to wonder how many people will buy the iPhone based upon the hype and high expectations that have been created only to find that it doesn't live up to those expectations.

[bobolito]

Originally Posted by scotsboyuk

I don't agree. There is merit to what you say, but I think there will also be a good number of people who don't necessarily need a new handset, but who want one anyway. In fact most people probably don't need a new handset each year, but they likely get one anyway because they simply want something new.

What I meant was that those who really need a phone, won't wait for the iPhone coming down in price and will get something else. But like you said, most people don't need a new handset each year, but they likely get one anyway because they simply want something new. Those are the ones that can afford to wait for the iPhone to come down in price if they really want one.

Do you really think a 2 megapixel camera is mediocre? But then again, we haven't seen the quality of the pictures it takes to say whether it is mediocre or not. That's what really counts. I prefer a 1 megapixel camera that takes clean and sharp pictures any day over a 2 megapixel camera whose pictures are blurry and the colors are off.

[scotsboyuk]

Originally Posted by bobolito

But like you said, most people don't need a new handset each year, but they likely get one anyway because they simply want something new. Those are the ones that can afford to wait for the iPhone to come down in price if they really want one.

Some might, but my point is that some probably won't. There will be other handsets available at the same time and some people are likely to not bother waiting for the iPhone to come down in price. After all it's not as if there is a set date for a price reduction that people can look to. If another handset comes along or an existing handset becomes cheaper it could take the sale.

Do you really think a 2 megapixel camera is mediocre? But then again, we haven't seen the quality of the pictures it takes to say whether it is mediocre or not. That's what really counts. I prefer a 1 megapixel camera that takes clean and sharp pictures any day over a 2 megapixel camera whose pictures are blurry and the colors are off.

It depends upon what you are used to. For me 2 MP is mediocre; 2 MP was high-end here two years ago and is now mid-range. I currently have a 3.2 MP cameraphone with a xenon flash, but that's more of a mid-range handset now; 5 MP cameras are taking the high-end spot.

You are correct though. it's not the number of megapixels that's important, but the overall quality of the pictures. However, I believe the iPhone has no LED or flash so that will probably hamper its picture quality.

[PCSuser]

My concerns are:

1. People will get an iPhone then there will be long Customer Service wait times on the phone due to so many people having dumb questions about their iPhone - cause most tech savvy people aren't going to get an iPhone.

2. Again so many questions, and that means long wait times at stores.

3. I fear more marketing/advertising/resources will be spent on the iPhone than anything else such as coverage/customers needs. Therefore... well I think this is a bad thing.

And those are some reasons I left at&t - amongst them enforcing a roaming rule but not showing when you are roaming; and bad coverage in my area; and horrid customer service.

[Fire14]

Originally Posted by PCSuser

My concerns are:

1. People will get an iPhone then there will be long Customer Service wait times on the phone due to so many people having dumb questions about their iPhone - cause most tech savvy people aren't going to get an iPhone.

2. Again so many questions, and that means long wait times at stores.

3. I fear more marketing/advertising/resources will be spent on the iPhone than anything else such as coverage/customers needs. Therefore... well I think this is a bad thing.

And those are some reasons I left at&t - amongst them enforcing a roaming rule but not showing when you are roaming; and bad coverage in my area; and horrid customer service.

Calls for iPhone questions or problems will go thru Apple & not AT&T, I don't expect long lines at the stores except for the 1st day or 2, especially with they way they are going to sell it.
Closing the stores at 4PM, then reopening at 6PM to sell the iPhone & letting a limited # of people in the store at once.

I hope your wrong on # 3.

As for CS, I never had a problem with them and from everything I keep hearing it's way better then Sprints.

[bobolito]

Originally Posted by Fire14

As for CS, I never had a problem with them and from everything I keep hearing it's way better then Sprints.

LOL! I know, Sprint CS is famous for being horrible if not the worst in the industry. But even with the worst CS, there are people who are still lucky to get good experiences with the reps. It depends on the case.

[Fire14]

Originally Posted by bobolito

LOL! I know, Sprint CS is famous for being horrible if not the worst in the industry. But even with the worst CS, there are people who are still lucky to get good experiences with the reps. It depends on the case.

Yes & I didn't mean for it to come across wrong that all of their reps are bad, and if anyone took it that way, sorry.
It just seems that is their biggest complaint on all the boards.

[Chord]

I certainly don't wish to play a false prophet, but regarding the potential impact and sales of the iPhone I do know that prior to it being released similar predictions were made about the PS3 and when the time came it stayed on the shelf and is still struggling to move units. I know the PS3 is different than the iPhone, but similarly the iPhone is different than an iPod (and many people are predicting that the iPhone will be the iPod of cell phones). I think the one thing people forget is that the iPhone is not the iPod; despite its features and hype it still has to work well as a phone. As such, the network matters. And while at&t is great in many places, there are actually places where they are not. Also with an iPod, you don't have to switch anything to get it; whether you are a Mac or Windows user, you are covered. You are not locked into a contract and forced to get data plans for an iPod. I am sure hype, fanboys, and pure curiosity will drive initial sales, but this race isn't a sprint, it's a marathon. That said, coming out the gate first, even with momentum, is great, but you have to be prepared/built for the long haul. I actually don't care who wins this race, because I am just a customer. I am not sure that as a customer I am winning anything either way. I just hope some people (mostly at at&t and Apple) are prepared to be wrong. I know I am.

Still, just as it is probably shortsighted and/or erroneous for me to liken or compare the iPhone's potential impact/sales to the PS3 it is similarly erroneous and/or shortsighted to liken or compare its potential impact/sales to the RAZR or the StarTAC. Some people have mentioned that when the RAZR and/or StarTAC were released that people were willing to and did pay the (then high) asking price for these devices. Very true. Yet let's look at the StarTAC for a minute. It was released eleven years ago. Back them (1996), the cell phone market wasn't as mature as it is now; the StarTAC also wasn't limited to one carrier or technology; there was an AMPS, TDMA, CDMA, and GSM version, and customers didn't have certain expectations/requirements. To put it more succinctly, the people who were willing to pay whatever price that StarTAC was available for then aren't necessarily the same people who will buy or want to buy the iPhone. Most people didn't even have cell phones back in 1996; eleven years later you would be hard pressed to find a household without one (or sometimes five), mostly because they are free or cheaper. In 1996, it was usually people with money that bought a StarTAC, because those without money could not afford it, had other priorities, did not see it as a necessity, and cell phones (in general) weren't as popular or as widely available/used as they are now. And as cliché and trite as it might sound, times change. Look at the record industry. Ten years ago, some artists were selling 10 million albums; today those same artists are struggling to sell 1 million and the whole industry is in panic (you can read several Rollingstone articles about this). Anyway, as markets mature customers get smarter and their needs/wants change; moreover, they're not necessarily the same customers and what they were willing to pay years ago is no indication of what they're willing to pay now.

Yes, people paid this or that for certain devices, but who were those people? Are they still willing to pay the same? Have they experienced buyers' remorse? Are they willing to pay $500/$600 just to be disappoint, because, remember, expectation is the mother of disappointment, and while the iPhone might be good (overall) perhaps it might not live up to certain people's expectations. I know I sound like a doomsayer, but the truth is I have bought many Apple products and been faithful to them over the years. I owned the first generation iPod (and every generation thereafter), mostly because I own/use a Macbook Pro (used to be a Powerbook) and I have no other choice for digital music player on the Mac. Still, it's not like I have never been disappointed or let down by Apple or like I agree with all their policies. Steve Jobs is just as arrogant and a control freak as VZW and that's why that proposed marriage never worked or would have, because two dictators cannot co-exist on the same "boat." If Apple succeeds and moves as many units as they expect to, then they and at&t will look like visionaries, and deserving so; if they do not, I don't know how many people will say that they lacked vision. I am just saying to be prepared for the possibility that this thing might actually sell poorly.

[SteveW]

Originally Posted by bobolito

People need to understand that the selling point of the iPhone is not its features, it's the user interface. If you are the geek tech type (the minority) looking for the most advanced features, 3G, a 5 megapixel camera, PTT, etc. then you'll have to look elsewhere. The iPhone is not marketed towards advanced, tech-type power users. It is for the average user, who Apple and AT&T understand is the majority of the population, who want an easy to use interface and want a "cool toy" they can brag about.

Originally Posted by bobolito

The price of the iPhone is steep. We all agree on that one. However, this is all about strategy. ... Those who will get an iPhone at its initial price will be those who can afford it, so no sense in AT&T making it cheaper than that for those folks who are willing to pay that much. Once they cover that "high-end" segment of the population, then they move on to lower population segments ...

I've been making my modest contributions in another iPhone speculation and prognostication thread. Just wanted to say that Bobolito is making all the points that I would make over here, and very clearly, so I'll just add a couple of things.

The point about a great user interface is not simply that you can get to and use any individual feature, such as making a call or reading your email, it's also that they work well together. If I get a link in an email I need the browser to launch easily. If I get someone's address and phone # in an email, I need to easily be able to call them, add the info to my address book, etc. It's the total experience that is important.

In the iPod analogy, the iPod works well with iTunes and the iTunes Music Store, and all are essential to its success. It remains to be seen how Apple will enable PC integration for Windows users. iTunes integration will work for sure, but email and address book, that can get complicated. It will be interesting to see how Apple tackles this.

Finally, one small point about features may have been overlooked here. Since the iPhone OS is a modified OSX, and the browser is Safari, Apple will likely have the most functional phone browser out there by far. I've used a number of built-in browsers (Nokia, LG, Bberry) as well as Opera Mini. All of them have lots of compromises and many websites don't work well on them. I haven't used IE on a recent version of WinMobile, but I'd still bet that Apple will be tops in this department.


SW

[SteveW]

Originally Posted by nKrypteD1

I'm sure I'll get both praise and ridicule for this comment as the iPhone touches on the OS war between Mac and MS, since we're all Mac haters or lovers to some degree. Just keep in mind I wrote this as a way to counterbalance the hype and to share my opinion for the, perhaps uninformed, consumer.

Lots of the points you made about the iPhone's shortcomings are valid - no 3G, no removable battery, unproven touchscreen, expensive. But there is no real war between Apple and Microsoft, except in Apple's TV ads (which, I would argue, are all about the coolness factor that Bobolito has written about in this thread). In the marketplace Windows is still 90-95% of what's out there. Microsoft is certainly not wasting any time trying to get that last few %. They are trying ensure that their installed base remains a money machine and they are much more worried about Google, browser-based software and Linux than they are about the Mac. Apple is transforming itself into a consumer electronics company (while keeping its traditional base in publishing, the arts and academia) and certainly not trying to beat MS on the desktop. That war was over long ago.


SW

[bobolito]

I'd like to see how well Safari works on the iPhone. Opera Mini's speed gain over other built-in browsers in other phones is mostly accomplished by the fact that Opera Mini doesn't directly connect to any website. Everything in Opera Mini runs through a proxy that compresses images and removes unnecessary code and transforms the page in real time to make it fit to a phone screen, and that speeds Opera Mini a lot. I don't expect the iPhone's Safari to do that, so I expect it won't be as fast as many people is anticipating since it is going to be dealing with the full HTML websites. If you've ever used your laptop hooked to an EDGE aircard, then you know how slow full HTML sites can be.

There are other questions that remain, such as how well will Google Maps work. Will EDGE be fast enough to pull those maps and satellite imagery? and how will those Youtube videos stream? All that will push the EDGE network to its limits and that may produce some not very happy campers.

[nKrypteD1]

Originally Posted by SteveW

Lots of the points you made about the iPhone's shortcomings are valid - no 3G, no removable battery, unproven touchscreen, expensive. But there is no real war between Apple and Microsoft, except in Apple's TV ads (which, I would argue, are all about the coolness factor that Bobolito has written about in this thread). In the marketplace Windows is still 90-95% of what's out there. Microsoft is certainly not wasting any time trying to get that last few %. They are trying ensure that their installed base remains a money machine and they are much more worried about Google, browser-based software and Linux than they are about the Mac. Apple is transforming itself into a consumer electronics company (while keeping its traditional base in publishing, the arts and academia) and certainly not trying to beat MS on the desktop. That war was over long ago.


SW

I agree, Microsoft vs. Mac was over before 95, but due to Apple's advertising since, there's been a fanatical fan base and everyone is predisposed, it's the psychological mine is better than yours. As far as Safari vs. PIE, I'd say considering that the Safari product in the sense is newer and more focused, however, I think the iPhone in this aspect will raise the bar for all other mobile technology manufacturers/developers. In the end this will probably do some good, but the phone itself is unproven and I doubt that in the end the platform will be refined enough to be effective in the first generation.

Originally Posted by bobolito

I'd like to see how well Safari works on the iPhone. Opera Mini's speed gain over other built-in browsers in other phones is mostly accomplished by the fact that Opera Mini doesn't directly connect to any website. Everything in Opera Mini runs through a proxy that compresses images and removes unnecessary code and transforms the page in real time to make it fit to a phone screen, and that speeds Opera Mini a lot. I don't expect the iPhone's Safari to do that, so I expect it won't be as fast as many people is anticipating since it is going to be dealing with the full HTML websites. If you've ever used your laptop hooked to an EDGE aircard, then you know how slow full HTML sites can be.

There are other questions that remain, such as how well will Google Maps work. Will EDGE be fast enough to pull those maps and satellite imagery? and how will those Youtube videos stream? All that will push the EDGE network to its limits and that may produce some not very happy campers.

I think the EDGE network, fine EDGE or not, is inadequate for this useage, and we shall see what the end consumer will think about this. I'd say there will definetly be a call for 3G on the next variant of the iPhone, the problem is millions will buy the first generation and lock themselves into the 2 year contract. Question is how long before the 2nd edition comes out, a month, 3 months, 6 months, I'd say less than a year.

[SteveW]

Originally Posted by nKrypteD1

I agree, Microsoft vs. Mac was over before 95, but due to Apple's advertising since, there's been a fanatical fan base and everyone is predisposed, it's the psychological mine is better than yours.

Now we are pretty OT, but my contention is that that advertising is mostly for the Apple installed base (fans, if you wish). It's important to Apple that these people know that Apple is not stagnating but staying on the cutting edge (Intel, 8 core Macs, easy to use built-in apps, industrial strength OS, even runs Windows) while retaining traditional strengths. So what if the ads have a mine-is-better-than-yours character? Don't be offended. If you make your living in the MS ecosystem, be happy that Windows rules the desktop (for now) and Apple's move into handhelds/smartphones has a long way to go to be as successful as WinMobile.


SW

[scotsboyuk]

Only a few days until the Second Com ... er I mean the iPhone. Are any of you chaps going to camp?